Diese Seite beschreibt die zukünftige Entwicklung der Gold- und Silberpreise.
Bitte sehen Sie dazu auch den Artikel "Goldpreis-Szenarien".

Enthält alle Einträge vom 1.1.2007 bis 30.6.2007.
Alte Seiten von 2006 auslagert zum schnelleren Laden der Seiten.
Neue Seiten ab 1.7.2007 sind hier.

Neu 2007-06-27:

Leserzuschrift aus Deutschland:

Die Daten für die US-Wirtschaft verschlechtern sich immer mehr.
Gleichwohl wird durch statistische Tricks etc. der Blick der Massen auf die Probleme verstellt. Ich bin gespannt, wie lange diese Potemkinschen Dörfer noch fortbestehen können.

Bei den Edelmetallen kann ich nur dazu raten, sich einfach zurückzulehnen und die Rückgänge zu weiteren Käufen zu nutzen. Wir haben oft genug die Gründe für Edelmetallinvestments dargelegt, so dass überhaupt kein Grund zur Besorgnis besteht. Gold und Silber sind die ewigen Feinde des Papiergeldes und angesichts der fragilen Situation der US- und Weltwirtschaft sowie der Kapitalmärkte versucht man derzeit, mit dem Drücken der Edelmetalle zu verschleiern.

Ich vermag nicht zu beurteilen, wie lange dies noch gelingt. Da der Silberoptimismus bereits in der letzten Woche bei nur noch 42 Prozent lag, sollten wir das weitere Rückschlagspotential nicht überschätzen. Aber genaue Prognosen verbieten sich hier!

Ich muss dazusagen, dass der Autor Ökonom ist, aber keiner der klassischen Vor- und Nachbeter.
Einfach abwarten.

Neu 2007-06-22:

Aus dem MIDAS vom 21. Juni:

It seems whenever the US stock market appears to be in trouble of late, The Gold Cartel mauls gold as a favor to the Plunge Protection Team. It has happened far too often these days to be a fluke. These people really are pathetic. It ought to make you ponder about how really fragile our financial market system is if the stock market can swoon for a just couple of days … which then forces the Socialist market planners in the US into a gold bombing.

OK, here's the deal. Forget technicals, Fibonacci, Elliot wave, gold analysts tying gold to another product or event, gold price prognosticators, in fact forget everything but these four rules in the gold market:

#1: Gold only rises when the price suppression mechanisms fail. Suppression only fails when physical buying overcomes even intense CB selling. The ascent of the rise is commensurate to the degree of cabal failure.

#2 The only people that could truly know a future gold price would be a Fed or bullion bank insider.

#3 A dollar price of gold merely reflects a number utilized to mask the extent of Fed-driven dollar failure.

#4: Anybody that still refuses to acknowledge gold price management is either bought and paid for, or someone so dense as to not merit any credibility.

It's that simple. My gold investing strategy makes everything else irrelevant. How the suppression blows up, and when are the only criteria I need. If Nadler and his bunch depended on me for a living they'd be candy coating something else for a living. The only information you really need is right here at LeMet, and GATA.

Immer wenn die US-Aktien- oder Bond-Märkte in Problemen sind, wird vorsorglich der Goldpreis gedrückt (wie heute). Die technische Analyse kann man daher vergessen. Der Goldpreis wird erst steigen, wenn der Drückungsmechanismus wie in 2005 versagt (er wird es wieder). Nur dann geht das ganze System mit hinunter, wie es im Mai 2006 fast passiert wäre.

Neu 2007-06-19:

Die Zentralbanken in Gold-Verkaufspanik:

Neil Ryan: Blanchard Economic Research Note

The ECB weekly financial update showed that this past week, one captive ECB bank sold 1.5 tonnes of gold into the market, continuing the drastically reduced sales trend over the past three weeks from the previous three months. This also confirms that ECB organizational sales have not yet shown up in market figures, despite already having been announced as finished.

Using updated IMF and BIS data on Central bank gold activity in the last four months, we're finally getting a grasp of the much larger picture of what has been happening behind the scenes in the gold market; with both ECB captive bank activity and outside of ECB banks.

While the Bank of Spain sales, Swiss National Bank announcement and the ECB bullion sales activity has been well documented the last few weeks in the market, what hasn’t been so apparent is the amount of sales coming in from other entities within the market over this same period of time including the Bank of International Settlements, National Bank of Indonesia and Bank of England. (The BOE was not a signatory to the second CBGA, so their sales as well as the BIS and Indonesian sales do not fall under the CBGA 500 tonne annual quota).

Spain: 108 tonnes

ECB: 37 tonnes

France: 29.1 tonnes

Indonesia: 23.3 tonnes

BIS: 22.7 tonnes

UK: 6.5 tonnes

Sweden: 3.3 tonnes

Assorted other central bank sales and ECB sales in June: 10.6

240.5 tonnes of sales in 4 months. To put that figure in some perspective; In 2005, central banks sold 674 tonnes (21.6 million ounces) of gold into the market, representing over 16% of that year's supply side of the market, sales averaging 56.1 tonnes per month. 2005 was the largest year for central bank sales in the last several decades. In the past four months, the market has absorbed 60.12 tonnes per month…possibly even more if some additional sales reports show up in the next few months.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, we feel the need to underline just how important it is to see the gold price hold up while digesting these massive sets of sales. At no point in time has the gold market had to absorb this much supply coming from central banks in such a short period. Seeing the gold price hold above the $640 level during this period of increased sales should be the best demonstration of just how robust the physical demand side of the market is at present.

Wow, sogar die BIZ in Basel hat fast 23 Tonnen von ihrem Gold verkauft. Die Not muss gross gewesen sein. Und der Gold-Preis ist kaum eingebrochen. Das sieht irgendwie nach "Endgame aus".

Hier noch 2 technische Gold-Analysten mit guten Nachrichten:

John Sarkett: Something good this way cometh

Tom McClellan: Gold: A look at the COTs

Flüchtet das Gold-Kartell jetzt aus seinen Shorts weil es einen Anstieg sieht?

Neu 2007-6-07:

Wo die Edelmetalle wirklich hingehören:

Aus dem Midas vom 6. Juni:

I purchased a 100 oz Silver bar today as I usually do monthly regardless of price. A couple years ago they always had bars, then I had to get on a call list ( good thing I got in good with the owner as I was on the top of the list ) Now even though I am on the list calls come infrequently. This shop is IMO the nicest coin department in Austin, Texas hands down. They had quite a bit of Sterling and other junk silver but nothing notable. The gold case was also kind of slim pickings.

Also, why would anybody sell in May and go away from physical? Play paper games with that strategy. Once you have physical you should never sell unless you are rolling into something tangible like land, IMO. Physical holding of PMs should be reserved for the strongest of hands.

Offenbar werden auch schon in den USA Gold und Silber knapp, obwohl vioele Kleinanleger derzeit viel verkaufen. Die beiden fett dargestellten Punkte:
a) Man gibt die physischen Edelmetalle nicht für Papier her, sondern nur für reale Werte (wenn deren Preise niedrig sind)
b) Gold und Silber gehören in die "stärksten Hände" - die die nicht gleich aufgeben

Enrico Orlandini's Gold-Prognose:

June Newsletter: Gold: Where to Now

Klingt ja sehr vielversprechend:

I have been following gold for better than twenty-five years and I'll have to admit that I don't recall seeing investors this discouraged in a long, long time. Maybe never! I think a lot of it has to do with a complete misunderstanding of what constitutes a bull market as well as how it functions.

First and foremost, you must understand just why we have a bull market in gold. The reason is actually two-fold:
1. Presently there is no currency in the world that is backed by anything other than a 'promise to pay', and
2. All the world's major economies are engaged in a printing war in an effort to have the cheapest currency. A cheap currency leads to cheap prices for exports.

So when I add these three up, what do I get? Simple! You get a market that is on the verge of an upside explosion that will not only catch most speculators by surprise, but it will catch them on the sidelines trying to chase it on the way up. The next question is: when is this upside explosion about to begin? Here's my answer: it already has. Precisely, the move up everyone has been waiting for began on May 24th when gold bottomed at 651.50 and bounced of the red trend line. It is now shaping up for its third and final run at good Fibonacci resistance at 695.5. What's more gold will not only break through 695.5, but will run through the May 11, 2006 high of US $730.40 and up to a minimum of $775.00. That's been my price target for six months but personally I can't believe that gold has spent this much time building a base to rally another one hundred dollars. No, I suspect we built this base in order to support a run up to the all-time high of $882.50. It only makes sense when you stop to think about it. Just about everyone and their brother have thrown in the towel and that's what a gold bull market does best. It sucks you in when you have no business buying and it pushes you out just when you should be in. Next stop, gold at $775.00!

Auch er hat derartig niedergeschlagene Gold-Investoren wie derzeit noch nie gesehen.
Natürlich geht dabei das Edelmetall zu den "starken Händen", d.h. den echten Investoren.

Seiner Meinung nach hat der nächste Goldpreis-Ausbruch schon begonnen und es wird diesesmal auf mindestens $775 hinaufgehen, möglicherweise sogar auf $882 - vor der nächsten grösseren Korrektur. Hoffen wir es.

Nachsatz 1: Mit einem Goldpreis-Ausbruch ist jederzeit zu rechnen, wenn die Bond-Zinsen weiter steigen, wie sie es derzeit tun.

Nachsatz 2: Wenn die Aktienkurse sinken, wird wieder versucht werden, den Goldpreis zu drücken, um das Geld in die Staatsanleihen "umzulenken".

Warum ist Gold so "unbekannt":

Jason Hommel: The Tiny Size Of The Gold Market

A "wise allocation" would be 50-100% at this stage. But a more realistic, "foolish" allocation would be at least 5-10%.....

I don't know what these money managers are thinking. If they knew about the relative size of the gold market, the price would be $2000/oz. by tomorrow morning.

Er meint, eine "weise Allokation" wäre 50..100% Gold/Silber des Portfolios - derzeit.

Neu 2007-06-06:

Die Gewinner und Verlierer im Goldmarkt:

Aus dem Midas vom 5. Juni:

Wer im grünen Preisbereich in Gold eingestiegen ist (etwa im Juni 2006) hat gewonnen. Nur wenige Leute, die im roten Bereich gekauft haben, haben noch nichts verdient.

Aus dem selben Midas - die "Kleinanleger" (USA):

Gold sentiment is lousy everywhere we turn:

Here's a tidbit that suggests that the small investor is in the midst of a Gold Dump Rush and is selling into the rally that started last week. I found out that Friday was a really big day for my local coin store. Only things was, it was the dealer doing all the buying! The shop paid out $100,000 of cash to sellers of bullion and coins. I would be curious if anyone else has heard anything about this, as my coin dealer appeared shocked at the volume.
At least in my neighborhood, it sounds like John Q. has really thrown in the towel; sold in May and gone away, so to speak. This reinforces my conviction that a major, major break out to the upside is imminent.

Brr, diese Typen - John Q. oder auch "Joe Sixpack" verkaufen ihr Gold und Silber zu einer Zeit, wo alle Zeichen auf einen massiven Ausbruch deuten. Diese Typen gibt es auch bei uns. Und was macht das "Smart Money"?

As frustrating as today was re gold and the shares (as a group), we are watching a building pressure cooker/volcano when it comes to our precious metals markets. As Neal Ryan points out, the market is taking a great deal of central bank gold selling (the visible plus the invisible) very well. Demand is that robust.

The fundamental reasons to own gold and silver now are as good as they get and that has not gone unnoticed among the SMART MONEY crowd. The continued antics by the market managers in the US are becoming more obvious … too obvious. The answer and hedge against what they are doing is to own gold and silver, the natural recipient of too much money creation and sustained market manipulation.

Das kauft so viel Gold & Silber, dass der Preis kaum mehr gedrückt werden kann.
Daher sind sie auch das "Smart Money".

Schon gesehen? Ein Bond-Crash deutet sich an:

10Y-US-Treasury Yield: 5%, 10Y-Bund: 4.5%.
Wer hat diese (deutschen) Bundes-Anleihen um 3% gekauft? Die Lebensversicherungen!

Das ist super-bullisch für Gold, denn Gold ist die wahre Konkurrenz zu den Staatsanleihen und deren Zinsen!
Möglicherweise kommt wie 1987 zuerst ein Bond-Crash, erst dann der Stock-Crash.

Es gibt auch eine Crash-Warnung von Bill Buckler: noch diesen Sommer! Er meint, dass es nur mehr im Juni 2007 gelingen wird, das System zu stabilisieren. Wenn die Bonds weiter fallen, dann ist es bald soweit.

Neu 2007-06-02:

EZB stellt Goldverkäufe ein - 37t in 2 Monaten verkauft:

Rheinlandpfalz: EZB verkauft 37 Tonnen Gold

EZB verkauft 37 Tonnen Gold
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat in den vergangenen zwei Monaten insgesamt 37 Tonnen Gold verkauft. Weitere Verkäufe seien für dieses Jahr nicht geplant, teilte die Zentralbank am Freitag in Frankfurt am Main mit.

Die EZB hat also selbst auch verkauft, nicht nur Frankreich und Spanien.

Aus dem MIDAS vom 1. Juni:

What a nice way to start off the month. Meanwhile, this is a time to question coincidences …
1. The dramatic drop of 55, 132 contracts in the gold open interest on Wednesday.
2. Yesterday’s OI fell another 5634 contracts, bringing the new number down to 364,922 … meaning The Gold Cartel and friends were covering massively as the predictable funds SOLD THE BOTTOM.
3. JP Morgan Chase picks up the cheap gold at this bottom, taking in more than 11,000 contracts for delivery.
Then this announcement a day later …

PRESS RELEASE
1 June 2007 - The ECB’s gold sales Over the past two months, the European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted gold sales amounting to 37 tons of gold. These sales are in full conformity with the Central Banks’ Gold Agreement, dated 27 September 2004, of which the ECB is a signatory. Together with the gold sales of 23 tons, completed on 30 November 2006, the ECB has thus sold 60 tons of gold in the third year of the agreement, which started on 27 September 2006 and ends on 26 September 2007. It is not the ECB’s intention to sell more gold in the current year of the agreement.
–END

All of that was one big coincidence… riiiiiiiight!

So AFTER The Gold Cartel does its thing to suppress the price and blows numerous specs out of the water, gold turns right around and starts going right back up.

What does all this mean?
Most importantly it reinforces what the GATA camp has to say about the gold market … in that it is all about The Gold Cartel, other central bank selling, and the physical market. Other factors, such as a weaker dollar, contribute to the demand for gold, but are a distant second to why the price of gold is going to well above $2,000 per ounce.

Wirklich eine schöne Methode, einen neuen Monat zu starten. Wer an Zufälle glaubt, mag die oben geschilderten Vorgänge als Einzelaktionen ansehen. So etwas ähnliches ist auch 2005 passiert, dann ist der Goldpreis massiv angestiegen.

Aus Bill Buckler's Gold This Week (Privateer) vom 1. Juni:

And now, the very last attempt to erect a "Potemkin" facade in front of what is rapidly turning into a US economic wasteland in REAL terms is the inexorable rise of the US stock market. Since the "China scare" at the end of February when the Chinese stock market dumped more than 11 percent in one day, the Dow has risen just under 13.5 percent, setting all time highs on an almost daily basis for what seems to be months now.

Almost all of this rise has, of course, come on the back of a new avalanche of borrowed money, much of it used by the companies themselves to buy back their own stocks. If the present rate of stock buybacks so far in 2007 were to continue for the rest of this year, the total would approach the $US 1 TRILLION level for the year as a whole. The situation is tailor made for a crash, it's just a matter of when.

That "when" may well come sooner rather than later. The most OMINOUS development on US markets has taken place over the past month or so and is now accelerating. NOBODY on Wall Street wants to talk about it. We refer to the rise, which is now accelerating, in the yields on US Treasury debt paper....

So far, the two BIG signals of this increasing strain are the rising yields on US Treasury debt and the sudden surge in the $US Gold price this week. The pressures are immense. As already mentioned, Gold has been trading below the bull market high it set in May 2006 for over a year now. We don't think it will be doing that for much longer. The situation may be contained for the month of June. The chances of it being contained until the end of the northern summer are remote.

Die Potemkinsche Fassade. Bill Buckler schreibt in seinem Bericht, dass die Welt geholfen hat, diese US-Fassade noch etwas aufrechtzuerhalten, falls der Iran nicht angegriffen wird. Ist diese Zeit jetzt vorbei?
Mit Recht weist er auf den Treasury-Yield hin, der steigt. Seiner Meinung nach kann der Goldpreis noch für den Juni unten gehalten werden. Irgendwann (bald) zerlegt sich das System in einem Crash - die Situation ist dafür "zugeschneidert".

Neu 2007-06-01:

Das "Tal der Tränen" am Goldmarkt scheint für uns durchschritten zu sein.

Gold ist wieder über $660/oz,
Silber steigt auch: $13.45/oz
Die Minenaktien steigen auch wieder schön.

Offenbar versucht das Goldkartell jetzt seine Comex-Shorts zu covern, nachdem es nicht gelungen ist, den Goldpreis wirklich massiv zu drücken: Midas 31. Mai: Open Interest fell a super astounding 55, 132 contracts to 370,556.

Aus einem (seltenen) Midas-Alert: JP Morgan kauft massiv physisches Gold:

Today was 1st delivery day for the June COMEX gold, and we got the out of the park home run which confirms the something is up. A total of 13,436 contracts were delivered.

The shocker is that J.P. Morgan bought 11,628 of the contracts. That's 1.16 million ounces of gold at a purchase price of $768 million dollars!! http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdf. Thanks, -Bryant

More gold goodies was also late this evening, but included this MOST astute commentary:

Most observers are bewildered by the open interest slump. My guess is that this is the reverberations of the settlement of some monster physical transaction.

Something VERY BIG is up ... to be dealt with in future

Unglaublich: JP Morgan versucht offenbar für sich oder (einen Gold De-Hedger) massiv Gold-Futures in Gold-Metall umzuwandeln.

Aus dem Midas vom 31. Mai zu "Prechter & co" und deren "Gold-Prognosen":

What I don’t get is the Robert Prechter camp has been basically all wrong for 6 years. Over that time RP himself has given one bearish gold prognostication after another at various gold conferences we have both spoken at. What waves are these folks looking at? The only one that will count in the end is the tsunami which is going to overpower The Gold Cartel and all the bearish predictions from the Hochberg/Prechter camp.

Seit 20 Jahren predigen sie bereits die Deflation. Sie werden sie sicher bekommen, aber gegen reale Güter wie Lebensmittel und Gold. Nicht unbedingt gegenüber Fiat-Money. In der Zwischenzeit schreiben sie nicht mehr über einen Goldpreis von $200. Späte Einsicht?

Für alle Österreicher unter den Lesern - was mit deren "Volkseigentum" gemacht wurde:

Aus dem Midas vom 31. Mai:

Gold news out of Vienna;

Dear Bill!
I am a regular at the Café since last year and enjoyed the ride so far! We even drove from Vienna to Munich just to hear you and James Turk speak at the conference, that was fun!

Anyway, I'm writing to inform you that the governor of the Austrian National Bank (OeNB) Dr. Liebscher stated in his address to the general assembly in 2005 that the OeNB has "started to use the gold reserves in a profitable way. 72% of the gold reserves are invested in time deposits."

In this year's address he says "roughly two thirds" which probably means that it probably hasn't changed (which would be in compliance to WAG2).

He doesn't clarify "time deposits" ("Termineinlagen") but the year- end numbers feature "gold and gold receivables" in one line, so this might mean anything from gold futures to gold loans.

That means that about 80t of Austria's gold exist in physical form.

Btw, the total of Austria's gold is 288 tons (down from 657 tons in 1988). The book value of these 288 tons roughly equals Austria's Euro contingent (Euro 4.5 billion).
Cheers,
Stefan from Vienna

Nur mehr 80 Tonnen Nationalbank-Gold real vorhanden? Holt Euch den Rest in den privaten Besitz!

Neu 2007-05-31:

Die grosse Schlacht am Goldmarkt:

Aus dem Midas vom 30. Mai:

The COMEX gold open interest rose an astonishing 9966 contracts yesterday to reach another all-time high of 425,688. The War of the Worlds has reached a new height.
This sort of buying is unprecedented, as is the selling. It would appear The Gold Cartel has been found out, and the SMART MONEY is taking them on. Certainly this is not your standard fund buying here.

Was bedeutet der "Open Interest": Es ist die Zahl der noch nicht erfüllte Kauf- bzw. Verkaufsorders. Gegenüber jedem Long (Kauf) steht ein Short (Verkauf) gegenüber. Was passiert real:

Es gibt eine Menge Käufer (Longs), die durch die Preisdrückungen nicht herausgehe (im Gegensatz zu früher). Also "verkauft" (Shorts) das Goldkartell ebensoviele Futures um den Preis nich hochschnellen zu lassen. Das Goldkartell macht also alles, um die Gold-Nachfrage zu neutralisieren.

Es gibt nur 2 Auswege aus der Situation:
a) Die Longs verkaufen ihre Kontrakte (war bei den Hedge-Fonds) immer so, dann kann das Kartell seine Shorts zurücknehmen
b) Die Longs bleiben drinnen und der Preis steigt, dann muss das Kartell irgendwann zu steigenden Preisen die Shorts covern.

Diesesmal scheint es so zu sein, dass das Goldkartell irgendwann nachgeben wird, denn es müsste für seine Shorts Unmengen von Metall liefern. Dann ist der Goldpreis nach oben frei. Bei Silber scheint das inzwischen der Fall zu sein, der Preis steigt.

Neu 2007-05-29:

Gold Market Force Analysis von Adrian Douglas (www.lemetropolecafe.com):

Sentiment is at extremely low levels; the mining stocks can hardly catch a bid and daily volumes have almost dried up. Even long term gold bulls are bearish in the short term as they expect that the Cartel will pull another rabbit out of the hat at this all time high Open Interest level. What makes me think that the cartel will lose this battle is that the market has dramatically changed. The physical market is absorbing record levels of gold dishoarding from the ECB, while similar levels of dishoarding cratered the POG by 200/oz just one year ago. Gold has shrugged off talks of IMF gold sales, something that made weak longs head for the exit in the past. The longs seem very determined. They appear to be a lot less sensitive to price movements, which is characteristic of longs who want to take delivery, which is the Achilles heel of the cartel....

This is, in my opinion, the most positive and comprehensive set up for gold that we have ever seen in this bull market. We should not have to wait too long for this to be resolved. My guess is that we have a very good chance of breaking into all time record territory of $850/oz in the coming weeks to months.

Die beste Ausgangsbasis für einen Goldpreis-Anstieg bisher? Das klingt gut. Wenn der Goldpreis jetzt wirklich in kurzer Zeit auf $850 geht, ist das System am Ende. Würde zeitlich mit dem Platzen der Bubbles zusammenpassen. Ob das Goldkartell noch weitere "Drückungs-Kaninchen aus dem Hut" zaubern kann? Die neuen "Longs" am Markt wollen offenbar wirklich ihr Gold geliefert haben - böse für das Kartell.

Die deutsche Finanzpresse entdeckt Silber:

Handelsblatt: Fondsanleger kaufen Silber

Es ist Zeit geworden.

Neu 2007-05-27:

Jemand, der annimmt dass der Goldpreis noch weiter fallen wird/gedrückt wird:

Deepcaster: PROFITING AS THE GOLDEN SHOE DROPS

Der Autor meint, dass die Zentralbanken jetzt wieder einen Krieg gegen alle Rohstoffe (wie im Sommer 2006 vor der US-Wahl) starten werden. Neben Gold und Silber würden dann auch der Ölpreis und die Basismetalle wie Kupfer gedrückt.
Mag sein, interessant ist schon dass WTI-Öl derzeit billiger ist als Brent. Normalerweise ist es umgekehrt.

Damit mir niemand nachsagt, ich würde nur Pro-Goldpreis Stimmen veröffentlichen.

Was passiert, wenn der Goldpreis sinkt - wie 1975:

Adrian Ash: Housing & Gold: Baaa! Baaa!

Nur wenige sind drinnen geblieben und haben die grossen Profite kassiert.

John Embry: Expect a record gold price by year-end

Einer, der sicher drinnen bleibt. Hier sein Kommentar zu den offiziellen Statistiken und Medien-"Wahrheiten":
"Why should we believe them?" - warum sollten wir ihnen glauben?

Das führt uns geradewegs zu den 3 wichtigsten Investor-Eigenschaften:
a) er kennt Werte, Potentiale und Risiken
b) er kann warten, jahrelang
c) er handelt und denkt unabhängig von der Herde und Medien/Obrigkeiten

Mehr dazu auf meinen Investor-Seminaren.

Neu 2007-05-23:

Buy-Signal für Gold, Silber Minenaktien:

Bob Moriarty: It's time to buy

The public simply isn't interested in gold and it's going to take far higher prices for the metals to get them interested. That's a giant buy signal. Buy with both hands and back up the truck. The next major move in silver and gold is up. Buy when there is blood in the streets.

Für alle, die noch nicht (ausreichend) drinnen sind: Es ist Zeit, mit vollen Händen zuzugreifen.
Allerdings erwartet Bob Moriarty einen Aktiencrash zwischen Juli und Oktober. Also sollte man auch Cash vorrätig haben.

Neu 2007-05-18:

Aus dem Midas vom 17. Mai:

I think this is particularily relevent today’s price action,.. Notice that after a strong 4 year uptrend, Gold broke down out of the trend in May 05, as the chart above shows,.. Encouragingly though, instead of ‘tanking south’, as one might have expected, it traded sideways for a couple of months before beginning the ’10 month Ascent of Ascents’ up to and above $700,.. This adds some comfort to the ‘doomster chartists of today’ who are ‘manning the panic stations on the technical front at the minute’,..

2005 war auch eine ähnliche Entwicklung. Der Goldpreis wurde auch monatelang gedrückt, bis er im September 2005 ausgebrochen ist. Interessant auch der Kommentar über die "Doomster Chartists". Es hat keinen Sinn, in diesem manipulierten Markt technische Analyen anzustellen.

Weiter aus dem Midas:
If there is one quality that is necessary to succeed in this market, if there is something more rare than gold itself, it is patience. It has taken just two months of treading water to reduce most investors to nervous wrecks. All the while the gold market continues to create a high-level launching pad for further gains. I don’t know exactly when precious metals will take off into the wild blue yonder again, but I am sure that when it happens it will be from a base like the one that is forming right now. In the meantime India continues to import record amounts of bullion, disgorged from bankers and investors who will live to regret their preoccupation with short term results.

Das stimmt: was noch seltener ist als Gold: Geduld. Man muss langfristig denken. Trading ist in diesem Markt schwierung und sollte den absoluten Profis überlassen werden.

Neu 2007-05-07:

Jim Sinclair zum Goldpreis und zu den "Gold-Investoren":

1. I am convinced that the price of gold has chewed into significant opposition and appears close to overcoming it.
2. In all probability, I anticipate gold moving above $700 when I am in China.
3. In all probability the demand for gold that will breach the $700 level will come out of Hong Kong and Dubai.
4. Gold shares will participate.
5. Many long time gold advocates - having thrown in many towels - will not participate.
6. As in the 1970s and as Monty and I have pointed out to you there is new blood coming into the marketplace every day and they will be the ones to profit from gold’s upcoming move to and beyond $761.

Die, die "das Handtuch geworfen haben", werden beim bevorstehenden Anstieg nicht dabei sein. Dafür wird "neues Blut" dabei sein und die Nachfrage wird primär aus Hong Kong und Dubai kommen.

Sehen Sie auch diesen Artikel von Aubie Baltin: RIDING THE "GOLDEN" BULL
sowie meinen letzten Artikel dazu: Wie man den Goldbullen richtig reitet

Neu 2006-05-05:

Jim Willie zum Goldpreis:

GOLD BREAKOUT DELAYED

An diesem Diagramm sehen Sie, wie die enormen (französischen) Goldverkäufe 2006 noch einen starken Preiseinbruch bewirkte, 2007 aber ähnliche starke Verkäufe nur mehr eine Verzögerung das Preisanstiegs bewirkten. Wie in den 1970er-Jahren werden die Zentralbanken zuerst verkaufen um am Ende des Anstiegs mit den Kleinanlegern wieder einzusteigen.

Jim Willie erwartet in den nächsten Wochen einen Anstieg auf $750/oz.

Hintergründe aus Bill Bucklers Gold This Week vom 4. Mai (http://www.the-privateer.com/):

Consider what was happening as Gold soared from $US 500 to well over $US 700 in the six months between December 2005 and May 2006. The US real estate bubble reached its "apogee", despite the fact that the Fed was raising official US interest rates with clockwork regularity by 0.25 percent every time the FOMC met. The Treasury bumped up against its "debt limit" in late January and the "numbers" were frozen until the limit was raised - by $US 781 Billion to its present level of $US 8.965 TRILLION - on March 16, 2006. The President was plunging in the polls and for the first time, the majority of Americans deemed the war and occupation of Iraq as a "mistake" and were quickly coming around to favour a withdrawal from that nation.

But even with all this going on, a patina of US economic prosperity was still intact. The housing boom was still on and everyone still clung to the illusion that they were "rich", at least on paper. The Republicans still held both the White House and the Congress. The Iraqi's had even elected themselves a "government", allowing the Bush Administration to claim that they had restored "democracy" to that nation. In short, the perception that everything was still "under control" was still in place. Gold's run up from $500 to $700 plus in the first half of 2006 was largely fuelled by the traders who were jumping on every market bandwagon as soon as it appeared on their radars as offering a potentially superior return, no matter how long or short-lived that might be.

If we look at the year SINCE Gold hit those $US 720 plus highs in May 2006, the cardinal difference which is immediately apparent is the LOSS of perceived control by the "powers that be". Since the Fed stopped raising rates at the end of June last year (even though everybody else did NOT), their ability to control the financial system in general or the money supply in particular has come under ever growing doubt. The past year has also seen the END of the last great US investment boom, the real estate bubble. On top of that, the Republicans lost control of Congress in the November 2006 mid term elections. And over the past two months (during which Gold has only had one "down" week - and that was last week), the US Dollar has come under ever increasing pressure.

With this perceived loss of control, along with the perceived loss of legitimacy of the Bush Administration and their foreign (and domestic) adventures, has come an increasing sense of desperation by the US establishment, both political and financial. With that has come the increasing necessity to grimly retain control on anything where a retention of control is still possible.

As we have pointed many, many times, the source of the power of the US establishment is their control of the US currency and their ability to make the rest of the world accept it in return for REAL economic goods. The most dangerous adversary of the US Dollar is not any other global paper currency, it is REAL money, and that is Gold (and also Silver). As their power and control slips in more and more areas, their efforts to maintain it grow proportionally. And so far, they have been successful in controlling the precious metals. Neither Gold nor Silver has regained the highs they set this time last year.

We do not know how much longer this state of affairs can last. What we do know is that the longer it does last, the harsher the consequences (for the US establishment) when their control is finally lost, which it inevitably must be.

Hier ist es. Eine Menge hat sich besonders in den USA seit einem Jahr geändert. Die Bushies sind total desperat. Daher werden die Märkte so stark manipuliert. Deren wirkliche Macht ist der US-Dollar als Zahlungsmittel in der Welt, für den man reale Güter kaufen kann. Wenn diese Kontrolle verloren geht, werden die Konsequenzen desastriös sein.
Warum machen die Europäer und besonders die Franzosen da mit? Weil sie ähnliche Probleme haben.

Neu 2007-05-03:

Silber, die am meisten unterbewertete Asset-Klasse:

Ein exzellenter Artikel von Mark O'Byrne: Silver - Probably the Most Undervalued Asset Class

There are a total of 8.7 million millionaires around the world, representing a total wealth of a mind boggling $33.3 trillion. A trillion is an extremely large number and difficult for most to comprehend.
Conversely, the total value of all above ground stock of silver is a very small $4.2 billion.

Hmm, wenn nur die Millionäre dieser Welt jeweils 0.01% ihres Vermögens in Silber investieren, ist das verfügbare Silber weg.
Sind die so arm oder so unwissend? Die Situation ist hier noch viel explosiver als bei Gold. Wird schon noch kommen.

Neu 2007-05-02:

Auch wenn der Goldpreis wieder gedrückt wird:

The day will come when they feature gold on the cover of Time Magazine. That's when I'll think about selling. Right now I am doing what Jesse Livermore recommended as the best way to make money -- sitting. - Herb Berkowitz, Anchorage (aus dem MIDAS)

Ein richtiger Investor hat Sitzfleisch wie Jesse Livermore.

Neu 2007-04-25:

Ist Goldman Sachs 1000 Tonnen Gold Short?

Michael Kosares: Structural shift in gold, money markets

Hilft Hank Paulson seinen Ex-Kollegen bei Goldman, dass diese Short-Position (Metall, nicht Futures) nicht hochgeht?
Was ist mit Deutsche Bank, UBS, JP Morgan, etc., etc.? Sind die auch so stark short (haben geliehenes Gold verkauft).

Interessant im Artikel auch Gordon Browns Rufe nach IMF-Gold als Indikator für einen neuen Goldpreis-Anstieg.
Werden etwa die Goldverleiher unruhig?

Neu 2007-04-19:

Der Kampf um Gold $690/oz:

Seit Tagen tobt ein Kampf um den Goldpreis um $690, so wie er früher um jede Zehner-Grenze getobt hat. Die Zentralbanken versuchen mit allen Mitteln, ein Überspringen der Grenze zu verhindern, es nützt aber nichts. Es ist ein Rückzugsgefecht.

Hier ein Artikel von Jay Tailor: As the Dollar Crashes, Gold is heading to $4,800 & Possibly Much Higher

Hier eine Performance-Statistik (USA) aus dem Midas vom 18. April:

Die US-Aktienkurse sind weit abgeschlagen (europäische Aktien waren besser). Gold und besonders Silber waren viel besser. Die Säule "Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds" gibt offenbar die Performance von Goldminen-Fonds an. Die meisten Goldminen-Aktien waren wesentlich besser.

Neu 2007-03-28:

Die Gold-Situation ist extrem Bullish:

Bill Murphy, Midas: John Embry: Time for gold 'to go ballistic' approaches

Hier ein ganzer Midas öffentlich zugänglich, für die, die ihn nicht kennen.

Aus einem Midas-Nebenartikel von Adrian Douglas "EXPLOSIVE GOLD SETUP" (nicht öffentlich):

A very unusual situation is occurring. There is general discontent and frustration among gold and gold share investors. Many are reaching the end of their tethers and are selling in total disgust. I attribute this to the astonishing market manipulation pulled off by the cartel when recent global equity markets plunged due to a Chinese stock market 9% one-day free fall and problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market. Many gold and mining share investors thought that this was just what they had been waiting for when their safe haven investment was going to pay off in spades while all the other speculative equities got dumped. Courtesy of the cartel, however, precious metals and mining stocks suffered bigger drops than general equities!!! This surely was a triumph for the Cartel as they managed to prevent the stampeding herd running into the traditional safe havens..or was it such a triumph? The cartel has probably inadvertently created one of the best set-ups for a giant move up that I have ever seen. In stark contrast to the gloom and doom of investors, one by one recognized analysts are independently seeing a very bullish set-up.................

An extremely bullish set-up for the precious metals is being identified by different analysts who have entirely different methods of analysis. When this is put in context against a super-negative investor sentiment the situation looks to be explosive.

Was haben wir denn hier:
- Totale Frustration der (kleinen) Gold-Investoren, die verkaufen aus Enttäuschung
- Das Goldkartell hat es verstanden, die Aktienverkäufe am Gold vorbei in Staatsanleihen umzulenken
- Verschiedene Methoden der Analyse (technisch und fundamental) zeigen extrem bullisches Moment für Gold
- Zusammen mit dem derzeit super-negativen Investor-Sentiment ist die Situation explosiv - nach Oben

Im Gegensatz zu den "Kleinen" (und unerfahrenen) Gold-Investoren bleiben die "Grossen" (und erfahrenen) drinnen oder gehen in Gold/Silber/Minenaktien, sodass das Gold-Kartell grösste Mühe hat, den Preis nicht zu schnell steigen zu lassen.

Investieren ist eben kein "Job wie jeder Andere" und braucht eine Menge Mut und Sitzfleisch.

Neu 2007-03-27:

Das Goldkartell kämpft mit allen Mitteln ohne Erfolg gegen den Anstieg:

Morning Blanchard Economic Research Note

Allein die Euro-ZBs haben in den letzten beiden Wochen 16 + 12 Tonnen Gold auf den Markt geworfen.
Trotzdem haben sie den Goldpreis-Anstieg kaum bremsen können.
Primär die Franzosen verkaufen Gold.

Gibt es da einen Zusammenhang mit dem drohenden Iran-Krieg. Ein französischer Flugzeugträger ist auch dort.

John Embry: Zeit für einen ballistischen Anstieg:

http://sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/investors_digest_mar_30_2007.pdf

Er meint, dass der Goldpreis nicht mehr unter $600 sinken wird.

Neu 2007-03-11:

Absolut lesenswertes Interview mit Johann A. Saiger:

im Rohstoff-Spiegel 2007-05, Seite 11

Aber ich erwarte noch heuer schwerere Einbrüche am Aktienmarkt. Und die nächsten Turbolenzen, die ich erwarte, werden die Aktien stark fallen und im Gegenzug den Öl und Goldpreis explodieren lassen.
Ich halte es für sehr wahrscheinlich, dass es noch heuer zu einem Irankrieg kommen könnte. In einem derartigen Szenario könnten Gold und Öl steigen und gleichzeitig die Aktien einbrechen.

Dann wird das Geld nicht mehr in das "Toilettenpapier" (seine Diktion für Staatsanleihen) fliessen, sondern in echte Werte: Gold.

Neu 2007-03-10:

Wieder ein Super Artikel von Doug Casey:

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT (AND I FEEL FINE)

"Crisis Investing" ist seine Spezialität. Er hat ein Buch darüber geschrieben und es hat ihn reich gemacht.
Also, es ist besser, ihm zuzuhören als irgendwelchen Theoretikern:

Put simply, the amount of gold available to investors and central banks is like the number of beachfront home sites at Malibu -- it’s not going to change much. As a result, when the rush for the lifeboats begins in earnest, the upward pressure on gold will be unimaginable. As will be the profits for anyone who acts now, ahead of the crowd.

Ja, wenn das Rennen auf die Rettungsboote Gold und Silber beginnt. Dann sollten Sie bereits drinnen sitzen. Diesesmal gibt es von weniger als beim Untergang der Titanic.

Neu 2007-03-06:

James Turk: Gold auf $720/oz in 2 Monaten

Nach dem brutalen Niederschlagen des Goldpreises in der letzten Woche eine positive Nachricht:

James Turk: $720 Gold in Two Months

Der Goldpreis scheint sich jetzt bei ca. $645 stabilisiert zu haben - für den nächsten Anstieg.
Falls es möglich gewesen wäre, den Goldpreis weiter zu drücken, hätte das Goldkartell dies sicher getan.

Neu 2007-02-27:

Aus dem Midas vom 26. Februar:

UBS Raises Gold Forecast to $750 an Ounce in Next Three Months
2007-02-26 06:14 (New York) By Claudia Carpenter
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Europe's biggest bank by assets, expects gold to climb to $750 in the next three months. The forecast was raised from $700 partly on expectations for increased investment demand, John Reade, head of metals strategy at the UBS Investment Bank unit in London, said in an e-mailed report today. The metal will rise to $700 in the next month, UBS added.

Jetzt wagen es die Grossbanken auch schon, positive Gold-Prognosen abzugeben.

Neu 2007-02-22:

Goldpreis-Entwicklung nach Larry Edelson:

Gold through the roof! Here's what's next

Reason: Gold’s breakout above $675 tells me that much higher prices are coming swiftly. My new upside targets:

First, $732 an ounce. That’s last year’s high in gold, and I expect it to give way very easily.

Next, is $860 an ounce. That would be a new record high, but it’s absolutely achievable.

From there, the following two important numbers will be $981 and $1,056 per ounce. And I fully expect to see each of these targets hit this year. Here’s why ...

Investors all over the world are waking up to a simple fact — that central bankers are systematically devaluing currencies (with the U.S. dollar leading the way down) ... inflating their economies ... and pumping up money supplies like crazy.

Klingt sehr vernünftig. Sollte aber ein katastrophaler Crash/Meltdown passieren, was zu erwarten ist. dann ist jede viel höhere Zahl denkbar.

Jim Sinclair:

Gold is never easy so do not consider the ease for the longs today to be the beginning of a new age. Gold is going to $761 now, but be assured it will attempt to shake you out at every turn. Gold cannot stand trend line breaks without putting on a show and a half. What I am saying is sharpen up.

The mantra is gold is headed for $761 - $887.50 and $1000 with a bull trap, then $1650. For investors that means sit back and enjoy. Don't let anyone shake you out like what happened to many foolish gold investors in the last six weeks.

This is an Elephantine Gold Bull Market - stop fighting it! Those words seem to fall on deaf ears.

Also, nicht abschütteln lassen.
Er spricht es auch an: viele sind in den letzten 6 Wochen ausgestiegen.
Offenbar haben sie nicht das Sitzfleisch eines Jesse Livermore (berühmter Börsenspekulant) oder eines "Sophisticated Investor". Mehr darüber in einem neuen Artikel. Gold belohnt die Geduldigen und mental Starken!

Technische Analyse - sinnvoll?

Chris Powell, GATA: You can know a few things, or you can have technical analysis

Kurz zusammengefasst: in manipulierten Märkten wie derzeit ist technische Analyse sinnlos.
Aber das wollen diese Analysten nicht sehen, da sie sonst ihren "Lebensunterhalt" verlieren würden.

Neu 2007-02-18:

Goldpreis-Faktoren nach Jim Willie:

Gold & Silver Stealth

Er ist nur einer der Autoren, die in nächster Zeit eine stetige Aufwärtsbewegung für Gold sehen.
Sehen Sie nur diesen Punkt:

A bank crisis worse than the 1989 Savings & Loan debacle is in progress, sure to see infection to the general banking system. The USFed and Dept of Treasury are laundering mortgage bonds illicitly, without 98.69% probability.

Die Bankenkrise ist wirklich unterwegs. Offenbar monetisiert Helicopter Ben die Fannie Mae MBS-Bonds (geheim), sonst hätten sie zusammen mit dem Subprime-BMS-Bonds schon runtergehen müssen. Wie lange dauert es noch, bis man dahinterkommt?

Der Gold-Bulle des 21. Jahrhunderts:

Aubie Bailtin: 21st Century Gold Rush Revisited

The dot com bubble will look like small potatoes compared to some of the upcoming gains in the Gold and Silver bull market of the 21st century. But unlike the dot com bubble that was based on easy financing, unrealistic dreams of profits, aggressive accounting and pure greed, the coming explosion in Gold and Silver stocks will be all about not only Greed, but abject FEAR as well, to protect one's savings from the paper destruction combined with the GREED to get in on a sure thing. There is nothing that can stand in the way of a combination of GREED and FEAR. - Aubie Baltin

Der Autor meint, dass die 2. Phase des Gold-Bull-Markts im Anlaufen ist. Diese wird weiter hinaufgehen als 1980. Er sieht auch dass die ganzen Bond und Stock-Bubbles bald implodieren werden.

Das einzige Investment um super-erfolgreich zu sein, ist heute in Gold/Silber und Minenaktien drinnen zu sein und diese 2..3 Jahre zu halten - dann hat man ausgesorgt.

Nicht vergessen: There is no rush like a gold rush (es gibt keine grössere Manie als einen Goldrausch).

Neu 2007-02-10:

Kein Wunder, dass der Goldpreis wieder steigt:

Die Japaner wollen offenbar in die Hyperinflation und opfern ihren Yen bewusst für den Erhalt des Carry-Trade.
Dan Norcini (Yen Gold Price Makes New Mutli-Year High):

It is obvious the Japanese monetary authorities have made the deliberate choice to sacrifice their national currency so the carry trade game can continue and their export markets can remain competitive. The real victims of this policy are the average Japanese citizens who are terrific savers but whose savings are being plundered by these self-same monetary authorities who are charged with the stewardship of preserving the value of their nation’s currency.

Wenn die Japaner endlich dahinter kommen, was mit ihnen gemacht wird, sollte der Goldpreis explodieren.

Die nächste Baustelle, der Euro.
Vom Börsen-Astrologen Mahendra (www.mahendraprophecy.com), 9. Feb. 2007:

In few days time new negative development will start for Euro from France and other Euro countries and this can bring most uncertainty in currencies market or collapse of Euro, I will write in details in next the next week newsletter.

Was immer man von Mahendra halten mag. Er sagt auch einen Börsencrash, ausgehend von Europa und Asien ab 12. Februar voraus.
Wir werden sehen. Kollaps des Euro, von Frankreich ausgehend? Irgendwann kommt er sicher, aber so schnell?

Also haben wir 3 marode Gross-Währungen: Dollar, Euro und Yen. Bleibt nur mehr Gold als solide Währung.

Neu 2007-02-09:

Aus dem Midas von Bill Murphy (www.lemetropolecafe.com):

Our STALKER source checked in this afternoon with some serious good stuff. He met again for lunch with his client, a former Director of a regional Federal Reserve Bank who has purchased more than $1 million of bullion from him, who said the following:

*The decision by the US to do away with the M-3 money supply figures has some people (institutions, countries, very wealthy individuals) spooked. They are concerned about the US printing too much money. They are concerned this is going to lead to a dollar debacle.

*As brought to your attention in this column, more and more central banks are BUYING gold ... more than we are aware of at the moment. Now that the Chinese have become vocal about buying commodities, including gold, other central banks will be, and are, following.

*Very recently, billionaire types have begun to move their money into gold ... not so much as an investment, but as protection against a dollar collapse.

This is wonderfully important. As mentioned yesterday, the gold market cannot handle this sort of new buying, not with the
supply/demand deficit what it is. This greatly increases the odds the heinous Gold Cartel is going to get blown out of the water. Wait until some of them try and get some of their leased gold back. Gold will go ballistic!

Schau, schau was wir da haben:
a) Nicht nur Alan Greenspan kauft Gold auch andere ehemalige Fed-Bosse, gleich um Millionen
b) Die Amerikaner drucken zuviel Geld, es ist klar dass dies vielen Leuten missfällt
c) Zentralbanken kaufen Gold, einige auch verdeckt
d) Seit kurzer Zeit gehen Milliardäre in Gold

Es wird für mich bald Zeit, neue Edelmetall-Seminare anzubieten

PS: Auch die EZB-Leute kaufen seit einiger Zeit Gold. Nicht nur pensionierte.

Neu 2007-02-08:

Aus dem Midas von Bill Murphy (www.lemetropolecafe.com):

Central Banks unexpectedly buying gold for reserves
They recognize the power of reserve diversification, Blanchard says

NEW ORLEANS (February 7, 2007) - According to recently updated IMF reserves statistics, a number of central banks have begun purchasing significant quantities of gold over the past few months, in stark contrast to the most recently updated figures available to the market, says Donald W. Doyle, Chairman and CEO of Blanchard and Company, Inc. The central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece, and the Philippines all have added to levels of gold held in reserve according to figures updated February 5, 2007.

"The general trend of central bank activity regarding gold reserves has changed a great deal in the past year," Doyle says. "For the first time in the seven years of the program, banks affiliated with the Central Bank Gold Agreement failed to reach sales quotas in 2006 and now, with updated IMF reserve data just published, it is apparent that gold sales have slowed, in addition, the much anticipated and speculated upon gold buying is finally emerging in the market."
According to IMF statistics, Russia has added 7.45 tonnes to reserves, Kazakhstan has added 7.38 tonnes, Greece has added 3.56 tonnes, and the Philippines added 1.4 tonnes. While Russia stated publicly in 2006 that it would increase its gold reserves substantially over the coming years, the moves by other central banks were unexpected in the market, clearly a bullish signal, remarked Doyle.

Just saw news hit that South Africa has added nearly 22 tonnes to their resaves in January alone.
Those figures wouldn't show up in IMF reports yet because of the reporting lag, but the government made the announcement at the Indaba conference this week. That puts my count of Central Bank reserve additions that we can 100% confirm at this point over 41 tonnes in the last 3 months.

Schau, schau: es gibt einige "widerspenstige" Zentralbanken, die dem "Godfather Protection Racket" wiederstehen und Dollars gegen Gold tauschen. Von den Russen konnte man ja nichts anderes erwarten. Aber sogar in Euroland ist eine dabei - Griechenland. Man weiss, dass die Chinesen über "Hedge-Fonds" kaufen. "Godfather" = der Pate wird offenbar schwächer.

Neu 2007-02-02:

Aus dem Midas von Bill Murphy (www.lemetropolecafe.com):

Die Araber transportieren Silber aus London ab?

Our STALKER silver source relayed the following from London:
*The silver cash market over there is extremely tight.
*Silver IS moving out of London to Dubai and into Saudi country.
*While the silver market is liable to remain very volatile, this London dealer source does not expect silver to meet any serious resistance until it reaches the $15.50 to $16 levels.

Der IMF und seine "angedrohten" Goldverkäufe:

*The IMF, or someone close to them, has proposed gold sales now around 10 times since 2000 … only to be shot down again and again.
Had they sold some of their gold the first few times it was proposed, they would be looking like the British and would have forsaken a great deal of money for the IMF.
.................
*These talks usually surface whenever gold rallies and the bums are in trouble.
*There is no telling what gold the IMF may have LEASED out and doesn’t own anyway.

Diese "Drohungen" kommen immer, wenn das Gold-Kartell in Schwierigkeiten ist. Letztes Jahr ging es um die ärmsten Länder zu entschulden, diesesmal um die Defizite des IMF abzudecken. Haben sie ihr Gold nicht schon verleast?

What is interesting is that gold has gone up uncontrollably on two occasions in one week. Last week it rose $12 on the day of the State of the Union speech, today it rose $8 on the day of a FED meeting. That is unheard of except when the Cartel has lost control. When they have lost control in the past they have ALWAYS got some CB Chairman to talk about gold sales. They have run out of CB chairmen who can threaten to sell gold because they can’t even meet the WAG 2 quota!
They now make a weak threat that the IMF would sell gold but amazingly they mention that it would be within the WAG 2 agreement that has nothing to do with the IMF. Does this mean that the proposed IMF gold sale is actually gold that has already been swapped with an ECB member bank? If this is true then this would mean that the pathetically low run rate of WAG 2 gold sales has been achieved ONLY through swapped IMF gold. Now wouldn’t that be explosive?
This would mean that the CB’s are truly SOLD OUT. No wonder there is an ECB member bank BUYING gold!
Everything points to a rumbling volcano. Something big IS happening.
Cheers
Adrian

Haben die EZB-Zentralbanken kein Gold mehr. Manche kaufen jetzt Gold.
Wir werden sehen, ob der Vulkan bald ausbricht.

Interesting that the latest U.S. Expeditionary Strike Group [Bataan] just transited the Suez Canal on Tuesday, Jan. 30. Within the next week or two at the most, the Carrier Group John C, Stennis should be on station in the Gulf Region.
As a daily consumer of the "trash, bought-and-paid-for main steam press" I have noticed the rhetoric in the U.S. media [CNN in PARTICULAR] against Iran has been ratcheted up DRAMATICALLY in recent days.

The ground work has clearly been laid for an attack on Iran.
I HATE DATE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS, but, I’m going to go out on limb and suggest the window for an Iran attack is Feb. 15 – 18 WHEN THERE IS NO MOON LIGHT AT BUSHEHR, IRAN – site of at least one major / prime nuclear target.
Military commanders, historically, have always preferred to launch air-led attacks when there is no moonlight.
I PRAY I’m wrong, but have an ugly gut feeling I’m right.
Rob Kirby

Beginnt der Iran-Krieg also Mitte Februar - die Kriegs-Propaganda läuft bereits voll.
Wenn sie weiter warten, kann es sein, dass ihnen das finanzielle Kartenhaus bereits vorher kollabiert.

Aus Doug Casey's International Speculator (www.caseyresearch.com) vom Februar 2007:

Für alle, die wissen wollen, wann man aus Gold und Goldminen wieder aussteigen soll:

Q: Doug, I'd like to know... once you've positioned yourself in a burgeoning bull market (gold stocks for example), and once that bull market cometh, what general signs do you look for to know when it's time to get out? Picking the top is a difficult task, but of course you don't want to sell too early and miss a lot of upside. And when we sell into the mania phase of the market, presumably the
U.S. dollar will be going down the toilet; what should we put our profits into?

A: I’m glad to hear that question for at least two reasons. One, it shows that you’re thinking of eventually selling, which is critical when dealing in highly cyclical resource stocks, most of which are burning matches. Two, the fact that you’re asking is itself an indicator that the market has a way to go. When the market is really on fire, the only question people have is how they can buy more.
As you know, a classic bull market has three stages: Stealth, Wall of Worry and Mania. We’re well out of the Stealth stage of this one. And my guess is that we’re near the very end of the Wall of Worry. I expect, before year-end, we’ll start the Mania, which will probably last for a couple of years. And look a lot like the late Internet/tech bubble. But it will be even wilder, since it will be driven by fear as well as greed. And, unlike past resource bull markets, there will be a truly wide audience of stock buyers because, in 1980, very few had brokerage accounts. Now almost everyone has one. And, given how small the gold stock sector is, these stocks are going to truly howl.
Share prices of $5, $20, and $100 will be common among rank juniors. But that’s nothing new; we’ve seen it in several past cycles just in my memory. And I’ve only been doing this for 30 years.

But getting back to the question of how you’ll know when the top has come… One sure indicator is that you’ll hear people discussing gold and mining stocks at cocktail parties and around the water cooler. You’ll hear the Money Honeys yapping about it.
Most important, you’ll have friends who know you were early to the sector and hence knowledgeable start asking you what stocks to buy. Finally, a major magazine, such as Slime or Newspeak, will run a cover story showing a golden bear tearing apart the New York Stock Exchange.

Viel besser kann man es nicht sagen. Er meint, dass wir noch dieses Jahr in die 3. und letzte Stufe des Gold-Bull-Markets, die "Manie" eintreten werden. Im Gegensatz zur Tech-Bubble wird es diesesmal von Gier UND Angst getrieben werden, mit viel spektakuläreren Ergebnissen. Doug Casey meint, dass am Höhepunkt (wie immer) auf dem Titelbild eines wichtigen Magazins ein goldener Bär auftauchen wird, der die New Yorker Börse zerlegt. Solche Magazine erwischen das Timing fast immer genau, aber in genau umgekehrter Bedeutung.

Neu 2007-01-27:

Gold und der Kontradieff-Zyklus:

Hier ein interessanter Artikel von Mike Shedlock über die Entwicklung des Goldpreises im Kndratieff-Winter (seit 2000):

Gold and the K-Cycle

Im Kondratieff-Winter kommt es zur Deflation des Schuldenberges gegen Geld - primär echtem Geld = Gold.
Daher ist wird die Goldpreis-Entwicklung diesesmal viel explosiver sein als im Kondreatieff-Sommer (1970er Jahre).

Neu 2007-01-13:

Aus dem Midas von Bill Murphy, 12. Jan 2007:

Zusammenfassung: die COMEX-Konstellation ist derzeit ideal für einen rasanten Goldpreis-Anstieg.
Besonders interessant ist, dass der Preis an einem Freitag stark gestiegen ist, das ist sonst immer der Tag, wo der Goldpreis vom Kartell gedrückt wird.

Aus einer Zuschrift an den Midas:

Hi Bill,
Here's a few quick and dirty calculations on the current precious metals bull market results as of year-end 2006. The numbers are going

For gold, the cyclical bottom came in April 2001 at $255.95 (all numbers using London PM Fix). The high for gold in December was $648.75, so if my calculations are correct (and sharp-eyed Cafe subscribers always seem to double-check!) in those 69 months (exactly 5.75 years) the annual compounded return on investment for those who merely bought gold and held has been an impressive 17.56%. That's probably better than 90% of mutual fund managers have done.

With interest rates near all-time lows over much of that period and bank CDs paying an average of 3-5% in that time, you can see that the very simple strategy of buying and holding gold has been far more profitable than watching one's fiat dollars depreciate at the hands of governments and bankers.

But if you think the gold numbers are great, you're going to drop your jaw at what's happened to silver. Over the 62 months since its 2001 bottom in November at $4.06 to the high in December 2006 of $14.05, those who were smart enough (or lucky enough) to buy silver near its nadir in 2001 have enjoyed an annual compounded return on investment of—get this, now—27.16%!

That's nearly 10% per annum better than gold! Just to make the point, $10,000 invested at 27.16% per year over five years turns into $38,300. In ten years at that rate it becomes a stunning $146,000! (God, I sure hope my numbers are correct or you're gonna get clobbered with subscriber e-mails).

These results are nothing short of spectacular and are the kinds of returns that, over a decade or so, can make someone extremely rich. I would guess that only the top 5% or so of money managers around the world have done any better over the last five or six years than owners of precious metals.

Incidentally, the Dow Jones Industrials average on April 2, 2001 hit an intraday low of 9638. If you'd simply bought the Dow that day (the same day gold bottomed) and held through December of 2006, you would have realized an annual return on investment of 4.71% (using the high of 12,560 on the last trading day of December). That seems like a reasonable return, perhaps—but not when you consider that inflation is probably double that number, if not greater. And as several newsletter writers like to point out, the Dow in Gold Dollars over that same period begins to look downright pathetic.

In short, gold and silver are kicking the Dow's ass.

Die Performance war tatsächlich beachtlich. Aber sie ist natürlich in USD besser als in Euro. Besonders interessant die Feststellung:
Nur die oberen 5% der weltweiten Investment-Fond-Manager weltweit haben eine solche Performance erreicht. Und das mit minimalem Risiko.

Aber die richtige Edelmetall-Party kommt noch:

Aubie Baltin: 21st Century Gold Rush - UP DATE

Dieser Artikel ist inzwischen 1 Jahr alt, aber es ist so ziemlich das Beste, was man zu dem Thema schreiben kann:

I believe we are now at that same juncture as we were in 1976-78 but only this time the fundamentals are even better for gold and silver than they were back then.

Übersetzung:
Ich glaube, wir sind jetzt (2006) an einem ähnlichen Punkt wie 1976-78, aber dieses Mal sind die Funamentaldaten für Gold und Silber viel besser als damals.

"When people see gold and silver standing alone amidst the economic ruins, they will realize that we gloom and doomers were actually right".

Übersetzung:
Wenn die Leute sehen, dass Gold und Silber allein neben dem ökonomischen Ruin ringsherum stehen werden, dann werden sie realisieren, dass wir "Untergangspropheten" recht hatten.

"Too much paper has been printed in the past, and will have to be wiped out no matter what."

Übersetzung:
Zu viel Papier wurde in der Vergangenheit gedruckt, und dieses wird auf jeden Fall entwertet werden (das war in den 1970er Jahren, heute gibt es 30..40 mal mehr Papierwerte als damals).

The dot com bubble will look like small potatoes compared to some of the up coming gains in the first gold and silver bull market of the 21st century. But unlike the dot com bubble that was based on easy financing, unrealistic dreams of profits, aggressive accounting and pure greed, the coming explosion in gold and silver stocks will be all about supply and demand and an object FEAR to protect one's savings from the paper destruction combined with GREED to get in on a sure thing. There is nothing that can stand in the way of a combination of GREED and FEAR.

Übersetzung:
Die Dot.com Bubble war gar nichts im Vergleich zu den kommenden Gewinnen im ersten Gold/Silber-Bullmarket des 21. Jahrhunderts. Während die Dot.com Bubble auf leichter Finanzierung, unrealistischen Gewinnträumen, Bilanzmanipulation und reiner Gier basierte, wird die kommende Explosion der Gold/Silber-Preise und der Minenaktien durch die ANGST vor Vermögensverlust durch die Zerstörung der Papierwerte und kombiniert mit GIER an einer sicheren Sache teilhaben zu können, getrieben werden. Es gibt nichts was der Kombination aus Gier und Angst entgegenstehen könnte.

Lassen Sie sich diese Aussagen auf der Zunge zergehen. Daher habe ich sie auch übersetzt. Sie müssen nur der Realität in Auge blicken und sich von der Herde verabschieden. Im Moment scheint es aber so zu sein, dass sogar die Betreiber bekannter Gold-Webssites offenbar bei Gold und Silber aufgegeben haben.

Hier noch einige weise Worte von Bill Buckler (Gold This Week 2007-01-12):

Political control rests, always, on the control of the "currency". When that control slips because the control of the money has been abused beyond all measure, the power of the political establishment begins to slip with it. We have been watching that process unfold for years now. 2007 is the year when it is going to accelerate. If you don't own Gold, you don't have any protection at all.

Always remember - Gold is the POLITICAL metal! It's price is governed. When the politics slips, the control slips. And right now, the politics in the US is in potential chaos.

Also, die politische Macht beruht auf der Kontrolle der Währung. 2007 wird das Jahr sein, wo dieser Kontrollverlust (in den USA) sich beschleunigen wird. Gold ist ein politisches Metall.

Gilt nicht nur für die USA. Was ist mit dem Konstrukt Euro?

Bill Buckler zum US-Macht_Verlust:

For sixty years, the US establishment has yelled "jump" and the rest of the world has answered "how high?" That isn't
happening anymore.

60 Jahre lang hat das US-Establishment gerufen "springt". Die Welt hat gefragt "wie hoch". Jetzt nicht mehr.

Neu 2007-01-05:

Gold/Silber-Performance 2006:
Also bei ca. $636/oz ist der Goldpreis Ende 2006 stehen geblieben.
Das ergibt etwa $118/oz Steigerung in 2006 (von $518), also ca. 22% in USD.
Silber war etwas besser: Steigerung von $ 8.80/oz auf $12.85/oz, ist ca $4/oz, also um 46%.
Minen-Aktien waren teilweise noch besser: Agnico-Eagle: CAD 22.5 --> 48.15 = +114%,
.........oder Silver Standard Resources: CAD 18 --> 35.80 = +99%
In Euro war die Preissteigerung wegen des fallenden Dollar-Kurses natürlich geringer.

Aus Bill Bucklers Privateer/Gold this Week 30.12.2006:

Year Start   End     Gain   Percent
2001 $273.60 $279.00 $5.40  1.97%
2002 $279.00 $348.20 $69.20 24.80%
2003 $348.20 $416.10 $67.90 19.50%
2004 $416.10 $438.40 $22.30 5.36%
2005 $438.40 $518.90 $80.50 18.36%
2006 $518.90 $638.00 $119.1 22.95%

Nur 2002 war besser in der USD-Gold-Performance als 2006 !
Silber war noch wesentlich besser als Gold.

Mit einem Mix aus Gold, Silber, Minen-Aktien hat man locker die Standard-Börsen übertroffen, und das ohne wesentliches Risiko! Das ist echte Stealth-Performance !
Investieren ist nicht riskant, man muss nur eigenständig denken können und man braucht Geduld!

Alte Einträge sind hier.