Neu 2007-12-29:
Selbst die Banken in Österreich sehen schon Gold über $1000:
Networld.at: "Goldige" Aussichten im kommenden Jahr: Edelmetall mit großem Aufwärtspotenzial
Gold dürfte im kommenden Jahr neben Agrarrohstoffen das größte Aufwärtspotenzial besitzen. Der Preis für eine Feinunze Gold (31,1 Gramm) wird 2008 höchstwahrscheinlich erstmals in seiner Geschichte die 1.000-Dollar-Marke überschreiten und somit in den vierstelligen Bereich vorstoßen. "Sinkende Zinsen, hohe Inflation und volatile Aktienmärkte sind für den Goldpreis das allerbeste Umfeld", so der Goldexperte der Erste Bank, Ronald Stöferle.
Schau, schau. Und die Agrarrohstoffe = noch viel mehr Lebensmittel-Inflation.
Die "Insider" verlassen die Goldpreis-Drückung (aus dem Midas vom 28. Dez):
It was GATA's contention that when Rothschilds withdrew from the gold Fixing ring in London, it was because they knew what lie ahead re the price and of potential severe market problems due to the short position of The Gold Cartel. The following email from a fellow Café member opened my eyes a bit more:
In the back of my cluttered mind the issue of the Rothschild selling off their position in setting the price of Gold in England keeps bothering me. They made a billion a year off of that job. These guys just do not throw away money. There was something else that looked better.
As a functionary in the setting of the gold price, I read that they could go only short. At the time gold was pretty flat so no one really ran with this situation for more than a day or two. I might have missed something.
Anyhow, the Rothachilds have had gold in their veins for over 700 years. I would bet that they are the best leading indicator of what will happen to gold. The issue of finding out what they were doing could be tough, but with your contacts it might be worth exploring. When gold explodes someone has to have gold to sell to the stupid central bankers that have leased all of theirs out, with no return address. I'll bet the Rothschild will be to the rescue, but will make a huge fortune in the process as fiat money fails everywhere.
So why get into this again? Two MAJOR reasons:
*The abrupt decision by AngloGold to close out all their hedges next year.
*The desertion of the TOCOM short position by Goldman Sachs (see Adrian below).
Rothschilds, AngloGold, Goldman Sachs … they are the insiders, the ones with the political, insider information connections, etc. The price of gold has more than doubled since Rothschilds left the business because there was "no future in it." Now it is time for AngloGold and Goldman to get out of Dodge because they know the price of gold is going to double again and they have to extricate themselves from their short positions and Gold Cartel activities as fast as possible.
I like to think the GATA camp knows the gold market better than anyone else out there EXCEPT for The Gold Cartel camp. Those crooks know what they have done, why, and what is coming price-wise as they run out of enough available central bank gold to keep their suppression scheme going and viable.
Gold shorts beware: first it was Rothschilds, now it is AngloGold and Goldman Sachs. Do you want to fade them? … not by what they say, but by what they do?
"Getting out of Dodge": dort wo die Kugeln fliegen: vor 3 Jahren Rothschild, jetzt Goldman Sachs und AngloGold. Rothschild war immer früh dran. Goldman Sachs ist als Wall Street Finanzhaus immer bei der Herde dabei, aber cleverer als die anderen Schafe. Sie covern jetzt ihre Gold-Shorts wie wild. Ein weiterer Gold-Hedger fällt um: Anglogold. Genau, man muss sich ansehen was sie tun, nicht was sie sagen.
Sie alle wollen den Kugeln eines hohen Goldpreises entkommen.
Neu 2007-12-16:
Die Chinesen kaufen Gold:
Goldprice: Chinese Billionaires to Buy up Gold
Buy gold is the cry from Chinese Billionaires! Many of Chinese wealthiest investors are selling off their shares and are about to invest almost 68 billion dollars into gold according to a top fund manager.
Besser noch die Chinesen als die Araber. Der Westen ist zu dumm dazu.
Neu 2007-12-02:
Der unfehlbare Gold-Indikator von James Turk:
Kitco: Gold's Infallible Indicator - Six Months Later
Over the years, this indicator has been one of my favorites. It has been so good that I call it “gold’s infallible indicator”. True to form, this indicator is still scoring 100%.
So from time to time, the gold cartel enlists anti-gold publications that favor fractional reserve banking, fiat national currency, and managed money through the central banking elite. The Economist is all of those, with the result that it sits at the top of the gold cartel’s list of friendly rags. When the gold cartel is losing control, they invariably turn to The Economist, which then dutifully spins out some disparaging piece on gold, but to no avail. Eventually the market always overwhelms government price controls. It is an unalterable reality that price controls always fail eventually, even government price controls on gold.
So my conclusion is the same as the one I wrote about six months ago. “When reading about gold in The Economist, do it with a jaundiced eye, understanding that its foremost objective is to disparage gold. More importantly, when this infallible indicator flashes a buy signal, start buying.”
Interessant, wie dieses "Wichtige Magazin" so falsch liegen kann. Aber es Teil des Goldkartells. Nicht den Medien vertrauen!
Neu 2007-11-21:
Gold ist noch EXTREMST billig:
Aus dem MIDAS vom 20. Nov:
JOHN WILLIAMS' SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS
FLASH UPDATE November 19, 2007
Inflation-Adjusted (SGS)Peak Gold Price Is $6,030
Gold Price Still Well Shy of Inflation-Adjusted Peak. At subscriber request, we are publishing estimates of the January 1980 gold price peak (London afternoon fix) of $850.00 per troy ounce in terms of today's dollar. The thinking behind the request was that since central bank intervention and manipulation have been used to depress the price of gold over time, what could have been expected in terms of the current gold price if inflation were truly and fully reflected.
As can be determined using the Inflation Calculator referenced in the opening note, inflation-adjusted peak gold would be $2,283 per troy ounce based on October 2007 CPI dollars, and $6,030 per troy ounce in terms of October 2007 SGS-Alternate CPI dollars. The suggestion is that the price of gold still faces some catch-up.
Da kann man wirklich nur sagen: der "Welt-Geldbetrug". Die $850 von Jan 1980 entsprechen in heutiger US-Kaufkraft über $6000 und nicht $2283 wie "offiziell" angegeben.
Also: unter $6000/oz hat der Goldpreis immer noch nicht den Peak von 1980 erreicht!
Neu 2007-11-04:
Noch mehr "gute" Gold-Berichte:
Abendblatt: Die Renaissance des Goldes
Immer mehr Sparer laufen zur Bank und kaufen Barren und Münzen. Die Angst geht um - vor Geldentwertung und Finanzkapriolen. Und eine Ende des Booms ist nicht abzusehen.
Doch den Kunden, mit denen Stefan Rose, Leiter des Goldhandels bei der Haspa, täglich zu tun hat, sind ein paar Prozentpunkte nicht so wichtig. "Die Leute sagen mir: ,Ich lese in der Zeitung, was mit den Immobilien in Amerika passiert, dass die Menschen in England vor Bankfilialen Schlange stehen, um ihr Geld abzuziehen'", erzählt Rose. "Gerade in den vergangenen drei, vier Monaten hat die Nachfrage nach Barren und Münzen noch einmal einen deutlichen Schub bekommen. Bei der Menge des verkauften Goldes haben wir das Vorjahresniveau schon jetzt deutlich überschrittenund zum Jahresende zieht das Geschäft üblicherweise noch einmal an, denn Gold wird zu Weihnachten gern verschenkt." Besonders häufig gefragt seien derzeit Barren von 20, 50 oder 100 Gramm und die Krügerrand-Münze von einer Unze. Dabei geht es nicht nur um kleine Summen: "10 000 Euro sind ein gängiger Betrag", sagt Rose. "Geschäfte oberhalb von 100 000 Euro finden regelmäßig statt."
Ein Händler einer anderen Bank berichtet von einem Kunden, der am Tag der Nachricht über die Probleme bei der IKB Bank das komplette Geld auf seinem Girokonto in Gold umtauschte und dieses dann in einen Tresor packte. Nur tiefe Verunsicherung, ja Angst treibt zu solchen Handlungen.
Solche Berichte sind für das System extrem gefährlich! Denn sie produzieren Nachahmer!
Neu 2007-11-02:
Gold auf $806/oz:
Eine wichtige Etappe ist geschafft.
Der Goldpreis ist an einem Tag (sogar an einem Freitag) von ca. $790 auf $806 hochgefahren und dort stehen geblieben. Es sieht aus, als hätte das Goldkartell bei seinen Drückungsversuchen total versagt.
Die hatten sicher den Auftrag, einen Durchbruch der psychologisch wichtigen $800 Grenze mit allen Mitteln zu verhindern, besonders ein Close über $800. Bei der $700-Grenze konnten sich sich noch recht lange wehren, jetzt nicht mehr.
Gleichzeitig ist der US-Dollar-Index in einem Tag von $76.70 auf $76.21 drastisch gefallen (alles unter 80 ist sehr gefährlich). Das lässt darauf schliessen, dass das Finanzsystem gerade in die "Todeszone" eintritt und eine Flucht des "Big Money", besonders aus dem US-Dollar begonnen hat.
Jim Sinclair setzt jetzt die nächste grössere Korrektur beim Goldpreis für $1050 an.
Die nächste psychologisch wichtige Marke ist der bisherige Höchstwert von $850 im Januar 1980. Dabei wird das Medienecho noch grösser werden und weiteres Geld in das Gold ziehen. Nach offiziellen US-Inflationstatistiken entspricht dieser Wert etwa $2100, real aber um $4000. Das heisst, der Goldpreis ist immer noch sehr niedrig, aber ein steigender Goldpreis wird die Zinsen wie 1979 mit hochziehen, was das System dann "umbringt". Dann gibt es keine Grenze mehr nach oben. Rechnen Sie mit $50'000 am Höhepunkt (Euro gibt es dann keinen mehr).
Bloomberg drückt es sehr schön aus: Gold Tops $800 on Investor Demand for Haven From U.S. Assets
Gold als sicherer Hafen auf der Flucht vor allen US-Assets - das ist desastriös für die USA, aber wahr.
Die letzten Chancen in Gold- und Silbermetall einzusteigen, dürften jetzt sein. Das System ist jetzt in höchster Gefahr!
Neu 2007-10-31:
Da braut sich an der COMEX etwas zusammen (aus dem Midas vom 29. Okt):
Adrian notes:
The corollary to that is the ONLY thing that matters. The physical gold is MASSIVELY OVER-PROMISED. With 13 million ozs being controlled via Call options in DEC where the OI refuses to go down one month from expiry and a COMEX OI in the futures market where contracts for 50 million ozs are held for the DEC contract, the shorts have promised massive amounts of gold they don't have. If Jon Nadler is thinking these very determined long holders are going to cut and run he doesn't understand the concept of a short squeeze.
The Cartel has had their opportunity to turn the longs into sellers and it has failed every time. "Over-bought" is a concept that only applies to speculators, it has no relevance for big money concerns who want gold. The fact the price has gone up makes them want it more!
Wenn diese Futures-Long und Call-Option Halter im Dezember alle Metall wollen (sie gehen nicht heraus)...dann zerlegt sich das System. Auch wenn Gold aus "technischer Sicht" im Moment "überkauft" ist.
Dankschreiben an GATA/Midas von einem neuen "Gold-Millionär":
Bill,
Well it finally happened: with yesterday’s close, the wife and I are now gold millionaires. All assets are in gold bullion or shares and yesterday they closed at a little over $1,000,000. And it is all thanks to you and GATA.I bought my first bullion in 1998 (cashed out a 401K) and started lurking at the various gold sites. I then learned of you and in the late nineties subscribed to the Café. I lapsed and picked back up a year or so later (not sure of the dates). But the point is that since 1998 I have been in gold and since 1999 I have been very aware of you and the GATA message. You have kept me focused and aware of information published NO WHERE ELSE! But for you Bill, I would have liquidated long ago and have missed this great bull market. But for you Bill and I mean that with all sincerity. You and GATA have directly, materially benefited my hopes, dreams and aspirations.
All funds have been invested in gold and related assets and I have received a 25% return for the last seven years. And yes, I took great satisfaction from taking the Cabals money and using it to help fight the fight with the other Zulus. In amounts ranging from $50.00 to $50,000, I have been patiently and carefully buying TGLDX, ECU, TRE, SAMEX and adding to the bullion stash. All thanks to "Wild Bill Murphy" and the GATA crew.
So thank you. We are long and strong and looking forward to our next million.
Gratulation! Er hat es richtig gemacht: seine Papier-Altersvorsorge (401K) in Gold/Minenaktien umgewandelt - gleich zu Beginn.
Ich hoffe, ich darf auch hier bald einigen Gold-Millionären durch Hartgeld.com zum Erfolg gratulieren (und bekomme Dankschreiben dafür). Nicht vergessen, die 1. Million ist die Schwierigste, die weiteren Millionen kommen dann leicht - wenn man bis zum Höhepunkt drinnen bleibt.
PS: Silber-Millionär zu werden ist etwas arbeitsaufwändiger - aber noch profitabler.
Neu 2007-10-28:
Tabelle der Rohstoffpreise von Casey Research in USD:
Hier sieht man sehr schön, welche Rohstoffe "Geldcharakter" haben, also primär Gold, sekundär Öl.
Mit den anderen Rohstoffen ist in einer Krise nicht so viel Geld zu machen.
PS: sehen Sie Uran, das Spekulationsobjekt der letzten Zeit - ist massiv gesunken.
In der selben Publikation von Ed Steer:
I can't remember the last time that the gold price was up more than 2% in a single day, but it's been a very long time indeed, as gold was up $16.50 on Friday. As a result of this, most gold shorts are now deeply under water. As I said on Thursday, nobody should be surprised when Friday's O.I. report shows that the Commercials went short even more. They did; up another 11,860 contracts. The new O.I. record total is now 505,224. I await Friday's O.I. change with eager anticipation.
The Commitment of Traders report issued on Friday at 3:30 New York time showed something very surprising. Some of the traders in the Commercial category (not the Gold Cartel) are not only going long in larger numbers, but covering short positions as well. Opposite them in the Non-Commercial/Large Speculator category, the longs took some serious profits and also increased their net short position at the same time. It appears that the non-Cartel Commercials (who do not have the Gold Cartel's deep pockets) are being forced to cover their shorts. If this is the case, then we could see gold rise significantly as the non-Cartel shorts head for the hills. Let's see what happens on Monday.
Despite gold's stunning rise in price during the last four trading days, the shares did not join in the fun as much as one would expect. This has happened before, and there are dark rumblings by some commentators over at Bill Murphy's LeMetropoleCafe.com, that "someone is foolin' with Miss Kitty over at the HUI Saloon." It wouldn't be the first time that's happened, either.
Gold +2% in einem Tag (an das werden wir uns gewöhnen müssen). Das Goldkartell verhindert noch den grossen Ausbruch, indem es unglaublich Short an der Comex ist, diee anderen Commercials gehen schon Long.
Neu 2007-10-27:
Ein neues, goldenes Zeitalter hat begonnen!
Neu 2007-10-15:
Werden die Japaner jetzt zu Goldkäufern?
Telegraph: Japanese send gold through the 'clouds' as it breaches 3,000 yen
Gold has roared to a fresh 28-year high of $756 (£371) an ounce on the fears of global currency disorder and a surge of buying by Japanese investors using exotic trading signals.
Traders reported a sudden of burst of activity on the TOCOM gold futures markets in Tokyo as the price broke through the psychological barrier of 3,000 yen (£12.49) per gramme, the measure used by the Japanese to trade gold.
Irgendwann werden sie mit den mickrigen Zinsen nicht mehr zufrieden sein. In Japan ist richtiges Kapital vorhanden, wenn das zuschlägt...
Neu 2007-10-12:
Auch der ORF schreibt schon positiv über Gold:
ORF: Gold mit "Bilderbuchrallye"
Aber ganz glauben sie es immer noch nicht - zu neu?
Neu 2007-10-10:
Gold ist jetzt risikolos:
Bob Moriarty: Risk Free Gold, Risk Free Gold, part 2
From the $252 low in gold in late August of 1999 until the 18th of September of 2007 there has been risk to owning gold. But when Ben S. Bernanke lowered the Federal Funds rate by a full 50 basis points to 4.75% on the 18th of September, he removed all risk to gold. Yes, gold will continue to correct now and again but in his panic, Bernanke showed the only real risk is to savers of dollars. The dollar is dead, long live gold.
As I said in my last piece released on Friday Oct 5th, the Bernanke panic of September 18th has made gold risk-free. And the world faces two systemic events at the same time. The implosion of 8,500 hedge funds with its associated $460 trillion derivative fraud along with an unprovoked nuclear attack on Iran planned by Israel 15 years ago and soon to be executed by the United States. Your world is fixing to change in ways we can only dream of in nightmares. It's a good time to own gold.
Mehr muss man dazu nicht sagen, als dass Ben Bernanke mit seiner Zinssenkung den Goldkauf risikolos gemacht hat.
Dass heisst, im Goldpreis wird es kaum mehr eine wesentliche Abwärtsbewegung geben, es geht primär aufwärts.
Der Mogambo Guru dazu: Gold Hoarding Greedy Pigs - BUY!
Neu 2007-10-09:
Gute Nachrichten von Harry Schultz:
MarketWatch: Golden years for Harry Schultz
And Schultz's focus on gold is right on the news. He writes: "With an election coming, the Fed went for bandaging a slipping economy which affects votes and sacrificing the dollar, which is harder for the public to measure. Big rate cuts, like this 50 points, are always an act of desperation. Such cuts have usually been followed by recessions. More cuts will follow. It set the future in cement for the U.S. dollar. Cement overshoes. Currency debasement never produces wealth. Fed knows this, but took a political decision. Nothing new about that. Much higher inflation now guaranteed ... My tentative targets (by end of 2008): 14% (inflation), $1,600 (gold) and $45 (silver)."
Elsewhere, Schultz writes: "Gold is starting into the most exciting part of its long-term bull market, the so-called second (and monetary) phase. Herein we normally see the biggest percentage gains, matched by biggest corrections as we saw in the '70s gold rush: in 1974, gold corrected 25% in 4months (most gold shares fell 50-70%); in 1975-76 gold fell 50% (most shares fell 70-90%) and took 21/2 years to get back to old high before then rocketing to new highs. But that makes for great trading opportunities. This is the phase where the BIG money is made, by those who go with the tides. In and out, in and out ..."
In contrast, Schultz only recommends 10%-15% exposure to non-gold stocks and his favorite sectors are oil and alternative energy, uranium and commodity shares.
$1600 Gold $45 Silber Ende 2008 - die "monetäre Phase", offenbar wenn das Geld die Sicherheit von Gold und Silber sucht.
Er empfiehlt fast alles in Goldminen zu investieren, den Rest in Energie.
Neu 2007-10-05:
Attacke des Gold Kartells schiefgegangen:
Aus dem MIDAS vom 5. Okt. von Adrian Douglas:
Devastating Cartel Ambush!
In my commentary yesterday I pointed out that there were some signs that the gold market has been trading differently and suggested that big money is taking on the Cartel. I said "Today’s gold action was nothing short of spectacular. The first thing to note is that the Cartel got no follow through on a $17 down day! This is very unusual because there is typically a barrage of margin call selling for 2 days following a Cartel take-down. There was almost undoubtedly margin call selling which means that someone else was buying"The Cartel must have read the Midas column last night and said "No follow through! We’ll give you freakin’ follow through" And so they showed up for duty this morning with big grins on their faces and they smacked gold down almost $9 on the COMEX, in action that had already commenced in Asia and London. The thugs soon had the little speculators lying on the floor in hand-cuffs while they fired Taser guns at them. Everything was going their way as usual. But they didn’t notice the big money creeping up on them with Bazookas! Remember Clint Eastwood in "Dirty Harry"…Go on Punk, make my day! And when the smoke cleared there was Bear carcass for as far as the eye could see! From the low to the high today there was a $17 move in gold…does that ring a bell?
The massive Call option positions belong to someone with some heavy artillery. There is now no doubt about it. Yesterday I closed my commentary with the following "The option market structure, the new trading patterns of the COMEX and the high short position of the commercials is a strong indication there could be a commercial signal failure in the offing as we had at the end of 2005/early 2006 instead of the familiar Cartel induced washout. This thesis is further supported by my Market Force Analysis technique which does not place gold and silver in a high risk zone, on the contrary they are low risk to neutral currently". It now looks as if the Commercial Signal failure is here and now.
Tomorrow it will be the turn of Cartel Groupies who went short yesterday and this morning to wake up to a margin call from their brokers. They only have tomorrow to cover because on Monday the Chinese are back from a week long holiday and they have 400 B$ in their newly formed diversification fund to spend!
Der Text ist zwar etwas kriegerisch. Das Kartell wollte offenbar in üblicher Weise die Fonds und Spekulanten an der Comex aus den Gold-Long Positionen vetreiben. Jedeoch dürfte das "Big Money" den Angriff vereitelt haben und der Goldpreis ist vom Tages-Low aus um $17 gestiegen. Die alten Methoden funktionieren nicht mehr so einfach.
Bill Murphy betitelt diesen Midas mit:One Of The Most EXTRAORDINARY Gold Days In A Decade
und er holt die Gold-Rakete hervor. Die Zeiten haben sich offenbar geändert.
Neu 2007-10-01:
Jetzt kommt das Gold sogar zum Volk:
Bild: Soll ich jetzt lieber in Gold investieren?
Goldene Zeiten brechen an. Die Kurse sind wie das gelbe Edelmetall selbst: einfach glänzend! An der Londoner Börse notiert der Goldkurs seit Tagen auf dem höchsten Niveau seit 1980. Experten rechnen damit, dass der Trend anhalten wird.
Der Artikel ist eher neutral, aber die Breitenwirkung dieses Blattes ist enorm - nicht zu unterschätzen.
Hier eher für die Eliten:
Telegraph: Dollar crunch puts gold centre stage
THE dominoes are toppling. What began as a credit crunch has turned into a dollar crunch. We are witnessing a run on the world's paramount reserve currency, an event that occurs twice a century or so, and never with a benign outcome. The US dollar has fallen through parity against the Canadian dollar and plummeted to all-time lows against a basket of currencies. This is dangerous. None of the mature economic blocs seems able to take the strain, let alone step in to restore order.
Is this what gold is sniffing as it breaks out against all currencies, smashing through €500 an ounce against the euro, and vaulting to a 28-year high of $743 against the dollar?
"Central banks have been forced to choose between global recession or sacrificing control of gold, and have chosen the perceived lesser of two evils," said Citigroup in a fresh report.
"We believe that the policy resolution to the credit crunch will take the form of a massive, extended 'Reflationary Rescue', in a new cycle of global credit creation and competititive currency devaluations. This could take gold to $1,000 an ounce, or higher."
Europe will not let America export its day of reckoning to the rest of the world. It will counter with its own devaluation.
Eigentlich könnte man diesen Artikel auch unter Dr. Gold einordnen, so prophetisch ist er. Offenbar mussten die Zentralbanken ihren Goldpreis-Drückung reduzieren, um die Banken retten zu können. Auch wenn Europa versucht, den Import von Amerikas Tag der Abrechnung mit eigener Abwertung zu verhindern, es wird nicht gelingen. Es wird einen eigenen Tag der Abrechung in Europa geben - wenn das gesamte Kartenhaus implodiert und der Goldpreis explodiert.
Mehr Argumente braucht man nicht, um den Wert von Goldbesitz auch im Euro-Raum zu bekräftigen.
Aber das "Volk" hat sich vom Gold verabschiedet:
Aus dem MIDAS vom 19. September (da war der Goldpreis bei $720):
According to Alexa.com, the hits on Kitco.com are less than 25% the daily web traffic at Kitco the last time gold was $720 which was in the spring of 2006.
And the hits on Kitco are 1/3 of the daily rate when gold was $425 which was at the beginning of 2004.
Hell, even gold-eagle.com has no traffic.This is a completely stealth move with almost no retail attention which means it is being driven by powerful fundamentals and not speculative fervor.
When the upside break comes – and it may be here - we may be in for an absolute explosion in gold (and oil and interest rates.) as the retail sector runs into gold.
Die Preisdrückung seit Mai 2006 hat gewirkt - beim Volk - so funktioniert das "neue Goldverbot". Das Volk hat sich von diesem Thema verabschiedet, wie die oben angegebenen Hit-Counts an den Gold-Websites zeigen. Bei einem viel höheren Preis werden sie wohl wieder einsteigen - wie üblich. Die geboren Verlierer in jedem Bull-Market.
Neu 2007-09-19:
Haben die Spanier kein Gold mehr?
FT: Spanish gold move boost for bullion
The Bank of Spain, the largest seller of gold this year under the central banks’ gold agreement, plans no more significant sales of the precious metal in a move that is likely to fuel further the recent surge in prices.
People familiar with the pact said Spain’s central bank had already achieved the bulk of its planned bullion disposals.
Gestern wollten sie ihren Immobilienmarkt und ihre Banken noch mit aller Gewalt "gesundbeten". Wenn sie jetzt kaum mehr Gold verkaufen wollen, kann das entweder bedeuten, dass sie keines mehr haben, oder den Rest für noch schwierigere Zeiten erhalten wollen.
Ist auf jeden Fall positiv für einen steigenden Goldpreis.
Neu 2007-09-09:
James Turk im deutschen Mainstream:
Süddeutsche: Größte Finanzkrise seit Weimar
Der amerikanische Ökonom Turk prognostiziert den krisengeschütteltem Finanzmärkten ein jähes Ende - und rechnet mit der Rückkehr des Goldstandard.
Doch die wiederholten Geldspritzen der Währungshüter, die damit versuchen, die von Misstrauen geprägten Kreditmärkte am Laufen zu halten, lassen die Aussagen des Einwanderersohnes aus Ohio in anderem Licht erscheinen. "Die Zentralbanken werfen schlechtem Geld gutes in Massen hinterher. Das wird die Inflation anheizen und gefährdet das ohnehin fragile Finanzsystem aufs Äußerste", sagt Turk im Gespräch mit der Süddeutschen Zeitung.
Im Unterschied zu den meisten Schwarzsehern seiner Zunft hat er seine Sicht der Dinge nicht nur materiell, sondern auch rechtlich abgesichert: Turk hat sich ein eigenes Online-Geldsystem auf Edelmetallbasis namens "Goldmoney.com" patentieren lassen. Immerhin 30000 Anleger weltweit haben ihm nach seinen Angaben umgerechnet 200 Millionen Euro anvertraut, um damit in Turks "Goldwährung" bezahlen zu können.
Wenn sich die Süddeutsche Zeitung schon für den Gründer von Goldmoney.com interessiert...und sogar dessen Prognose publiziert...
Neu 2007-09-07:
Aus dem Midas vom 28. August:
What else is going to propel such surging buying interest in gold? Well, honestly, it has all been laid out in this column for weeks and months. The only difference is that we finally have manifestation.
What is paramount at the moment is the growing realization how really bad things are in the housing/mortgage market … that the problems are MASSIVE and will require money, money, and more money thrown at the financial markets. This accrues to gold any which way you look at it.
The LIBOR rate continues to rise in Europe because financial institutions are afraid to go elsewhere for funds. That is called fear of COUNTERPARTY risk … even various money market funds are suspect (see Kiki Table). Owners of physical gold do not have counterparty risk. Never has this special gold quality been of more paramount importance.
Das kann man nicht fett genug darstellen: Gold hat kein Counterparty-Risiko, d.h. es ist keine Institution dahinter, die pleite gehen kann.
Das ist in Zeiten wie diesen, wo das Bankensystem im Untergang ist, nicht hoch genug zu bewerten. Daher steigt auch wieder der Goldpreis.
Neu 2007-08-28:
Aus dem Midas vom 27. August:
Dubai gold sales rise 33% in July despite high prices
Reuters
Published: August 26, 2007, 00:01Dubai: Dubai gold sales rose 33 per cent in value in July compared with the year-ago period despite higher prices as buyers grew accustomed to the greater costs, an industry executive said on Saturday.
"The prices remain very good for the customers and we are attracting new buyers every day," Tawhid Abdullah, managing director of the Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group, said.
"I think we will be able to match the 33 per cent increase we saw in July this month."
-END-
To sum it up, The Gold Cartel is making sure the price does not rise, thus eliciting more and more commentary how it has lost status as a safe haven, which is one of the motives of The Gold Cartel for doing what they do in the first place. Unsuspecting investors in the West lose heart and back away. Meanwhile, the Arabs, Indians, etc., are ecstatic to buy gold on the cheap and view the western central bankers as a bunch of ignoramuses. Throw the US financial market press in that camp too.
Die Araber und Andere kaufen alles auf, was es gibt. Nur wir hier im Westen werden durch das Goldkartell mit seinen Medien-Manipulationen davon abgebracht.
Was sich bei Gold-Optionen abspielt (Silber ist ähnlich):
Gold option news:
I have been studying the gold options. It looks like we have some big action brewing.
In the October contract the largest PUT Open Interest is 5016 at strike $650. The largest CALL OI is 6696 at Strike $700.
Looking at December contract the largest PUT Open Interest is 10060 at strike $600. The largest CALL OI is 19679 at Strike $800.
There are also CALL OI of 18598 @ $700, 11285 @ $850, 3935 @ $900 and 7161 @ $1000
It is absolutely stunning that the CALL Open interest in December Strike $1000 exceeds the OI in October Strike $700. It is also very significant that the largest position is $140 higher than the price today.
It is not Joe & Jane six-pack who buy gold options. This is a way for serious money to get a big position in gold without blowing the roof off the price when they purchase. If the price moves into the strike price the options can be exercised for futures contracts or gold bullion.
Da gehen einige Leute ganz schön in die Gold-Calls, die erwarten einen Preis-Sprung. Das ist sicher nicht "Joe Sixpack" - der braucht nur sein Bier.
Neu 2007-08-24:
Kaufen die Chinesen jetzt massiv Gold?
Aus dem Midas vom 23.August:
A senior executive at a Turkish jewelry company has told the Turkish press that China has stated it will buy 2,500 tons of gold. "Gold as Jewelry's General Manager, Sedat Yalinkaya evaluated the increase in gold prices yesterday. If China realizes its claim that it will buy 2,500 tons of gold, he said…This amount equals a total annual gold production and consumption in the whole world."* I cannot find anything in the press to corroborate the statement that China intends to buy 2,500 tons of gold, but it may have been communicated privately.
It is interesting that a Turkish source is making this assertion, as that country is an increasingly important hub in world gold trade. "Turkey climbed up to third place among global gold markets in the second quarter of 2007 by surpassing the US for the first time, said World Gold Council Turkey General Manager Murat Akman in a written statement yesterday…Gold demand in the second quarter increased by 37 percent…Major increases occurred in key gold markets such as China, India, Middle East and Turkey."
Turkish Weekly: China's Demand Determines Gold Prices
2500 Tonnen - das ist eine Jahresproduktion und wird den Goldpreis massiv hoch treiben.
Neu 2007-08-16:
Die Gold/Silber-Lease-Rates steigen:
Besonders die längerfristigen, siehe Goldseiten rechts unten.
Das heisst, es wird teurer Gold und Silber gegen "Zinsen" auszuborgen. Die Lease-Rates sind aber immer noch sehr niedrig.
Bevor Gold/Silber wirklich massiv ausbrechen, werden diese Raten hochspringen.
Neu 2007-08-02:
Die einen kaufen, die anderen verkaufen ihr Gold:
Aus dem Midas vom 1. August:
Meanwhile, as the dummy central bankers give away gold at bargain basement prices to protect their own domains, the Arabs, Chinese, Indians, etc., are scooping up all they can. This report is nothing less than extraordinary:
UPDATE 1-Turkey's gold imports quadruple in July:
LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Gold bullion imports to Turkey, one of the world's top consumers of the metal, jumped by 328 percent year-on-year in July to 45.7 tonnes, the highest ever recorded in a month.Gold imports surged by 42.5 percent in the first seven months of the year to 150.5 tonnes, data from the Istanbul Gold Exchange showed on Wednesday.
Gold prices hovering around $660 an ounce, the wedding season fuelling physical demand for bullion and dollar weakness against the Turkish lira prompted investors to buy more gold.
"Because of the relatively lower gold price there's an incredible amount of physical buying," dealer Gokhan Aksu at Turkish jeweller Goldas.
Viel von dem in die Türkei importierten Gold geht weiter in die Nachbarstaaten. Aber eine Steigerung um 328% in einem Jahr bedeutet, dass in der Region eine richtige Absicherungswelle eingesetzt haben muss.
Aber nicht nur dort: auch von deutschen Händlern habe ich erfahren, dass sie tonnenweise Gold im Monat verkaufen, und oft eine 1 Tonne Silber pro Tag - pro Händler natürlich. Es scheint, das Big Money riecht auch bei uns schön langsam die Lunte.
European central banks could sell 500 mt of gold: UBS
New York (Platts)--1Aug2007/1217 pm EDT/1617 GMT
There is a strong possibility that gold sales by the European Central Banks, signators of the Central Bank Gold Agreement that expires September 30, would reach the 500 mt ceiling this year, according to UBS Metals Daily. This
would exceed by a wide margin the 392.5 mt sold during the life of the previous agreement.UBS said this "seems inevitable, based on the rate of recent sales announced by the ECB on behalf of Eurosystem members and some assumptions about Swiss National Bank sales."
UBS noted that in the week to July 27 Eurosystem banks sold about 12.8 mt of gold, based on figures released by the ECB. Also, the Swiss National Bank sold 14 mt of gold in the two weeks following the announcement that they plan to sell 250 mt over the remaining term of the CBGA.
"Although we calculate that sales in the year to date -- which runs to September 26 -- have totalled only about 385 mt, we calculate that the recent rate of sales would see the 500 mt ceiling hit sometime before the end of September," said UBS.
"Linear projections are crude, however, and we could see a sudden slowing of sales. But we believe this is unlikely.
"We are unsure which banks are responsible for the recent increase in ECB reported sales but will look at Spain's monthly reserve release closely when it is released in the next few days."
--Ovid Abrams
Diese Idioten von Europäischen Zentralbankern wollen ihre Quote dieses Jahr voll auschöpfen und sogar noch drüber gehen.
So wird mit dem Gold auch die Macht aus dem Westen und Europa weg und in den Osten ziehen.
What does it really mean? Not much in my book. The Gold Cartel has been quietly feeding MUCH more gold than that over the past decade. And Rob Kirby notes:
Bill;
Having written a fair bit about Italy and their 400 tonne gold bullion loan to LTCM – my best guess is that this move [to sell bullion to "pay down debt"] could very well be an attempt at making a public accounting for the "missing" bullion – the very same gold bullion that the Bank of Italy loaned – and never publicly acknowledged – to LTCM.The bullion that was loaned – as is generally the case with gold loans, swaps and forward sales – is NOT going to be returned to the Central Bank vault where it came from in the first place.
If my guess is correct – this is actually a good thing for GOLD. It means "the" or "an" end of gold price suppression may be closer than many realize. If the Italians are trying to "sanitize" the "look" of their books – that tells me they are VERY concerned about being ‘found out’ for what they have most likely REALLY DONE.
Rob Kirby meint, dass die angekündigten italienischen Verkäufe eigentlich eine formale Abschreibung des mit LTCM verloren Goldes darstellen - so dass man später nicht merkt, dass es verloren wurde. Offenbar fürchten sie, dass man bald die Wahrheit herausfindet.
Neu 2007-07-30:
Eine weitere Gold/Silber-Prognose:
David Morgan: RICH INVESTOR, POOR INVESTOR
Mr. Maloney’s mission has been to introduce real estate investors to an extremely undervalued asset sector, the precious metals. It is Mr. Maloney’s belief that all things run in cycles and everything repeats. He believes that the bear market in precious metals, which ended in 2001, took gold and silver into such undervalued extremes, that even at today’s prices, gold and silver are still an incredible bargain.
He also claims that the new bull market in the metals has just barely begun and that this new bull will take the precious metals to price levels considered unimaginable by most. Mr. Maloney estimated a price target of $6,000.00 for both gold AND silver . . . and he follows that statement up with “and that’s only IF the dollar survives, and history gives that a very low probability.” When you consider the amount of paper currency that the governments of the world have printed since the last precious metals bull ended in 1980, could Mike Maloney possibly be right?
$6000/oz für Gold UND Silber. Das wäre ein Verhältnis von 1:1. Dieser Preis aber auch nur, falls dem US-Dollar nichts passiert, was aber nicht der Fall sein wird.
Es ist auch ein interesanter Chart: US-Immobilien in Silber enthalten.
PS: Robert Kiyosaki schreibt selbst, dass er Gold und Silber stapelt.
Neu 2007-07-24:
Auszüge aus dem Midas vom 23. Juli:
On June 18 the US Dollar Index stood at just over 83. Today it hovers just above 80. What I find extraordinary is that the dollar hasn’t yet been able to mount a single significant rally in four weeks, even as it has broken through prior support. So far this latest 3 point drop has not been notable for its magnitude compared to other plunges, like the one in 2004 which sliced 10 points off the index, or the Spring ’06 fall that took off 6.5 points. The big question, though, has got to be; will the greenback rally? If it doesn’t are we poised on the brink of a major currency crisis?
If there is a dollar-centric currency crisis coming, where will the hot money go? The Euro is the obvious short-term beneficiary. However, even today, its level is elevated enough to prompt open dissension between Germany/the ECB and France over interest rates. A sharply higher Euro would likely precipitate severe downturns in the economies of France, Italy and Spain, among others. The currency might well splinter into its component parts in such a situation. All of this hardly makes the Euro a safe store of value in a crisis.
In the meantime, the Administration and the Fed must truly be desperate to garner support for the dollar if they are resorting to begging the Chinese Government to buy up Ginnie Mae mortgages*. By attempting to palm off impaired securities on an essential commercial partner and rival superpower, the U.S. is making clear that it will risk huge stakes to buy time for the status quo.
This crazy gambit reminds me of the actions of the patrician one-time New York Stock Exchange President Richard Whitney, as he tried to maintain his position in the 1930s. As John Brooks described it, "Whitney, fighting for his life and perhaps for his way of life, indulged in one last binge of cash-raising efforts… walking up to men he didn’t know on the Exchange Floor and asking them in tones casual to the point of indifference to lend him his standard sum — $100,000. He also did one thing suggesting that madness or something like it was overtaking him at last. He went to Ben Smith (an Irishman who had worked his way up from the streets, my add) and… announced brusquely that he ‘wanted to get this over quickly’–as if, say, his mission were to administer a justified rebuke to an inferior. Then he said he wanted to borrow $250,000 ‘on my face.’ …‘I remarked he was putting a pretty high value on his face,’ Smith recounted later…‘I told him he had a lot of nerve to ask me for $250,000 when he didn’t even bid me the time of day."**
I have to imagine that the Chinese told the Secretary of the US Department of Housing and Urban Development that he was putting a pretty high value on the guarantee of the U.S. Government, too. Oh yes, after a sensational trial, Richard Whitney was convicted of embezzling his clients’ assets.
While we're on the topic, the definition of embezzle is: "appropriate (as property entrusted to one's care) fraudulently to one's own use." Does that remind anyone of what has happened to the purchasing power of the American People's savings?
Finally, I continue to read predictions that if there is a collapse on Wall Street it will drag gold and gold mining stocks down with it, I think this line of reasoning is too dependent on market history and ignores current reality. Over the past century, Wall Street plunges invariably resulted in a flight to the safety of U.S. Government debt instruments. IF the next crash, whenever it may come, results from a flight out of the dollar, then this escape route will be a dead end. Rather, the odds are that a currency-inspired plunge will be accompanied by a soaring price of gold. If gold’s price goes up, so should mining stocks as people try to shelter their remaining assets.
Precious metals is not a particularly large, or liquid, corner of the market. There are few seats available to accommodate any sizable number of investors should they abruptly decide to redeploy their funds into pms. Any selling that is caused by margin calls should quickly be overwhelmed as new buyers enter the market. Instead of seeing the sector collapse, we may well have to start adding zeros to the prices of gold, silver and mining shares.
Sehr guter Beitrag. Wohin soll das Geld bei einer Dollar-Krise gehen? Der Euro ist keine sichere Aufbewahrung dafür.
Falls der nächste Crash eine Flucht aus dem Dollar auslöst (wird wahrscheinlich passieren), dann können US-Treasuries nicht die Rettung sein, noch eine andere Währung. Daher wird der Goldpreis mit den Minenaktien steigen.
Genau meine Argumentations-Linie.
Neu 2007-07-20:
Der Goldpreis-Ausbruch auf $684/oz:
Jordan Roy-Byrne: The Next Phase Has Begun
Diesesmal veröffentliche ich eine technische Anlayse. Sollte dieser Markt wieder "frei" werden, dann kann man diese anwenden.
Nach Meinung des Autors sollte jetzt der Eilliott-Wave Phase 3 beginnen, wo die wirklich grossen Preissteigerungen beginnen. Grund: das Big Money geht in Gold.
Neu 2007-07-07:
Das machen die "echten" Investoren (die mit dem grossen Geld), aus dem selben MIDAS:
Our STALKER source called for the second day in a row with more valuable input. Here it is:
*This STALKER group consists of two big players (thought to be Asian Governments, such as the Chinese) and three smaller players (multi-national corporations, perhaps an oil company). Two smaller players are joining this group.
*They have kept their core position in gold since all of this was brought to your attention years ago.
*However, except for smaller trades here and there, they have basically been out of their trading positions for 18 months, UNTIL YESTERDAY. They have a timing consultant in London, used as an advisor, which puts them in and out of trading positions.
*Their trigger point was $646 and in that area. They bought yesterday, which could be why gold bounced off $645, and also TODAY, which could be why gold turned around with a vengeance. Some huge buyers surfaced the past two days based on the volume, and now we think we know who they are. Bad news for The Gold Cartel who are doing all they can to keep gold suppressed.
*They are going to hold onto their trading gold position until gold takes out $700 and then they will evaluate from there.
*In the past they have made 20% on their physical trading operations. Of course they have cleaned up with their core positions also.
*The believe the dollar will to take out 80 and is one of the considerations for putting on their new gold positions.
*This STALKER group also has been buying silver the past two days. While our source emanates from Phoenix, he tells us the same story as the London silver dealer STALKER source … there is a major physical shortage of silver that will be felt in the months to come. These new strong hand buyers believe the price of silver is going MUCH higher and now is the time to buy.
Disgusted as I am because of what I see on a daily basis, I can’t but feel gold and silver are going to go bonkers in the near future. The Gold Cartel is capping a pressure cooker, one which is very likely to exert so much pressure the lid is going to be blown off the cooker.
Offenbar sind asiatische Zentralbanken dabei und Firmen, die steigen jetzt wieder verstärkt in das Gold ein, haben aber ihre Core-Position nie aufgegeben. Und bei Silber gibt es (in London) eine extreme Knappheit.
Kupfer soll auch bald massiv ausbrechen, da es kaum mehr Lagerbestände gibt und Streiks bei Kupferminen in Lateinamerika laufen.
Die Goldminen steigen wieder (selber Midas):
After about 15 months of watching our precious metals stocks drastically underperforming the actual metals, there was a significant event yesterday that indicates the stocks are once again about to take the lead. The ratio of the HUI to the price of gold finally broke out of its long, grinding downtrend.
Just thought your readers might want to know that if they've been waiting for the "right" moment to buy back in, now would seem about as good a time as any. I believe the train has left the station, but it's not too late to make a run for it and jump aboard the caboose. We have a 10% day coming up very soon.
How typical is it that the HUI is roaring when so many investors have taken their money off the table and so many market pundits are neutral, bearish, and have their clients out of the market!
For whatever reason it lends more credence to my notion that gold and silver are very close to some serious upside fireworks action. It just could be that the insider gold/silver crooks know what is coming down the pike, something which will send the prices of gold and silver to new multi-decade highs in the near future, resulting in gold/silver share MANIA buying. Even The Gold Cartel crowd playing with the shares, do not want to stand in the way of a coming freight train.
Was haben wir den da? Die Gold/Silberminen-Aktien steigen wieder. Wie heisst es doch: Goldstocks lead Gold. Also die Minenaktien steigen/fallen VOR dem Metall.
Das Kursfeuerwerk bei Gold, Silber und Minenaktien ist wirklich sehr nah. Aber es wird vermutlich gemeinsam mit einem Kollaps des Finanzsystems kommen (siehe Hedge-Fond-Krise).
Neu 2007-07-06:
Reale Inflation und Goldpreis:
Für den US-Dollar aus der amtlichen US-Inflationsstatistik (blaue Linie) und den Shadow Statistics von John Williams:
Der Goldpreis von $850/oz Anfang 1980 würde heute ungefähr $5000 (reale Inflationsberechnung) entsprechen. Der derzeitige Goldpüreis von $650 ist absolut minimal. Die Inflations-Bedingungen sind aber ähnlich wie in den 1970er Jahren. Diesesmal kann das System nicht gerettet werden, daher wird der Goldpreis weit über $5000 gehen. In Europa ist die Situation ähnlich.
Neu 2007-07-03:
Aus dem Midas vom 2. Juni:
It is truly remarkable to me how little patience the average investor has, unwillingness to do their own homework, and how easily they exit from a bull market … in this case one that will be one of the grandest of all time. Their loss, our gain.
Resistance taken out at $655 was significant.
Ja, die Geduld der Investoren im Westen scheint sehr limitiert zu sein, sehr verschieden zum Orient:
Turkish gold imports for June, posted today on the Istanbul Gold Exchange, were dramatic. At 30.766 tonnes, they were the 4th highest in the 11 years of data the Exchange provides, 178.4% above June last year and 25.1% ahead of May. According to the Exchange, weighted average $US prices were 10.3% above June 2006 and only 1.6% below those of May. Imports for 2007 to date of 104.776 tonnes are 10.4% ahead of last year.
Since much gold entering Turkey is thought to be transshipped on to Iran, Iraq, and Syria over the eastern and southern border, the obvious explanation for this growth is that geopolitical fears in these countries are rising. In any case, the peak demand months for Turkey are usually July and August, a fact to be set against the widespread discussions of seasonal weakness. The stopping of two rally attempts in NY hours on Friday involved a fairly important effort, (especially as some short covering was likely). On volume equal to 15,808 Comex lots Chicago added 298 Comex lots, while NY, on 51,911 contracts added, as usual, a more significant 2,162 lots. Net, therefore, US futures added 7.65 tonnes on what ended as an up 50c day.
Die schlagen richtig zu. 174% mehr als im Juni 2006 gingen über die Türkei!
Neu 2007-06-19:
Die Zentralbanken in Gold-Verkaufspanik:
Neil Ryan: Blanchard Economic Research Note
The ECB weekly financial update showed that this past week, one captive ECB bank sold 1.5 tonnes of gold into the market, continuing the drastically reduced sales trend over the past three weeks from the previous three months. This also confirms that ECB organizational sales have not yet shown up in market figures, despite already having been announced as finished.
Using updated IMF and BIS data on Central bank gold activity in the last four months, we're finally getting a grasp of the much larger picture of what has been happening behind the scenes in the gold market; with both ECB captive bank activity and outside of ECB banks.
While the Bank of Spain sales, Swiss National Bank announcement and the ECB bullion sales activity has been well documented the last few weeks in the market, what hasn’t been so apparent is the amount of sales coming in from other entities within the market over this same period of time including the Bank of International Settlements, National Bank of Indonesia and Bank of England. (The BOE was not a signatory to the second CBGA, so their sales as well as the BIS and Indonesian sales do not fall under the CBGA 500 tonne annual quota).
Spain: 108 tonnes
ECB: 37 tonnes
France: 29.1 tonnes
Indonesia: 23.3 tonnes
BIS: 22.7 tonnes
UK: 6.5 tonnes
Sweden: 3.3 tonnes
Assorted other central bank sales and ECB sales in June: 10.6
240.5 tonnes of sales in 4 months. To put that figure in some perspective; In 2005, central banks sold 674 tonnes (21.6 million ounces) of gold into the market, representing over 16% of that year's supply side of the market, sales averaging 56.1 tonnes per month. 2005 was the largest year for central bank sales in the last several decades. In the past four months, the market has absorbed 60.12 tonnes per month…possibly even more if some additional sales reports show up in the next few months.
At the risk of sounding repetitive, we feel the need to underline just how important it is to see the gold price hold up while digesting these massive sets of sales. At no point in time has the gold market had to absorb this much supply coming from central banks in such a short period. Seeing the gold price hold above the $640 level during this period of increased sales should be the best demonstration of just how robust the physical demand side of the market is at present.
Wow, sogar die BIZ in Basel hat fast 23 Tonnen von ihrem Gold verkauft. Die Not muss gross gewesen sein. Und der Gold-Preis ist kaum eingebrochen. Das sieht irgendwie nach "Endgame aus".
Hier noch 2 technische Gold-Analysten mit guten Nachrichten:
John Sarkett: Something good this way cometh
Tom McClellan: Gold: A look at the COTs
Flüchtet das Gold-Kartell jetzt aus seinen Shorts weil es einen Anstieg sieht?
Neu 2007-6-07:
Wo die Edelmetalle wirklich hingehören:
Aus dem Midas vom 6. Juni:
I purchased a 100 oz Silver bar today as I usually do monthly regardless of price. A couple years ago they always had bars, then I had to get on a call list ( good thing I got in good with the owner as I was on the top of the list ) Now even though I am on the list calls come infrequently. This shop is IMO the nicest coin department in Austin, Texas hands down. They had quite a bit of Sterling and other junk silver but nothing notable. The gold case was also kind of slim pickings.
Also, why would anybody sell in May and go away from physical? Play paper games with that strategy. Once you have physical you should never sell unless you are rolling into something tangible like land, IMO. Physical holding of PMs should be reserved for the strongest of hands.
Offenbar werden auch schon in den USA Gold und Silber knapp, obwohl vioele Kleinanleger derzeit viel verkaufen. Die beiden fett dargestellten Punkte:
a) Man gibt die physischen Edelmetalle nicht für Papier her, sondern nur für reale Werte (wenn deren Preise niedrig sind)
b) Gold und Silber gehören in die "stärksten Hände" - die die nicht gleich aufgeben
Warum ist Gold so "unbekannt":
Jason Hommel: The Tiny Size Of The Gold Market
A "wise allocation" would be 50-100% at this stage. But a more realistic, "foolish" allocation would be at least 5-10%.....
I don't know what these money managers are thinking. If they knew about the relative size of the gold market, the price would be $2000/oz. by tomorrow morning.
Er meint, dass die professionellen Geldmanager mit Gewichten etc. nicht umgehen können. Auch kennen sie nich die Grössenverhältnisse der Märkte. Sonst wäre der Goldpreis schon morgen auf $2000. Irgendwann werden sie es lernen.
Er meint, eine "weise Allokation" wäre 50..100% Gold/Silber des Portfolios - derzeit.
Neu 2007-06-06:
Die Gewinner und Verlierer im Goldmarkt:
Aus dem Midas vom 5. Juni:
Wer im grünen Preisbereich in Gold eingestiegen ist (etwa im Juni 2006) hat gewonnen. Nur wenige Leute, die im roten Bereich gekauft haben, haben noch nichts verdient.
Neu 2007-06-02:
EZB stellt Goldverkäufe ein - 37t in 2 Monaten verkauft:
Rheinlandpfalz: EZB verkauft 37 Tonnen Gold
EZB verkauft 37 Tonnen Gold
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat in den vergangenen zwei Monaten insgesamt 37 Tonnen Gold verkauft. Weitere Verkäufe seien für dieses Jahr nicht geplant, teilte die Zentralbank am Freitag in Frankfurt am Main mit.
Die EZB hat also selbst auch verkauft, nicht nur Frankreich und Spanien.
Aus Bill Buckler's Gold This Week (Privateer) vom 1. Juni:
And now, the very last attempt to erect a "Potemkin" facade in front of what is rapidly turning into a US economic wasteland in REAL terms is the inexorable rise of the US stock market. Since the "China scare" at the end of February when the Chinese stock market dumped more than 11 percent in one day, the Dow has risen just under 13.5 percent, setting all time highs on an almost daily basis for what seems to be months now.
Almost all of this rise has, of course, come on the back of a new avalanche of borrowed money, much of it used by the companies themselves to buy back their own stocks. If the present rate of stock buybacks so far in 2007 were to continue for the rest of this year, the total would approach the $US 1 TRILLION level for the year as a whole. The situation is tailor made for a crash, it's just a matter of when.
That "when" may well come sooner rather than later. The most OMINOUS development on US markets has taken place over the past month or so and is now accelerating. NOBODY on Wall Street wants to talk about it. We refer to the rise, which is now accelerating, in the yields on US Treasury debt paper....
So far, the two BIG signals of this increasing strain are the rising yields on US Treasury debt and the sudden surge in the $US Gold price this week. The pressures are immense. As already mentioned, Gold has been trading below the bull market high it set in May 2006 for over a year now. We don't think it will be doing that for much longer. The situation may be contained for the month of June. The chances of it being contained until the end of the northern summer are remote.
Die Potemkinsche Fassade. Bill Buckler schreibt in seinem Bericht, dass die Welt geholfen hat, diese US-Fassade noch etwas aufrechtzuerhalten, falls der Iran nicht angegriffen wird. Ist diese Zeit jetzt vorbei?
Mit Recht weist er auf den Treasury-Yield hin, der steigt. Seiner Meinung nach kann der Goldpreis noch für den Juni unten gehalten werden. Irgendwann (bald) zerlegt sich das System in einem Crash - die Situation ist dafür "zugeschneidert".
Neu 2007-06-01:
Aus einem (seltenen) Midas-Alert: JP Morgan kauft massiv physisches Gold:
Today was 1st delivery day for the June COMEX gold, and we got the out of the park home run which confirms the something is up. A total of 13,436 contracts were delivered.
The shocker is that J.P. Morgan bought 11,628 of the contracts. That's 1.16 million ounces of gold at a purchase price of $768 million dollars!! http://www.nymex.com/media/delivery.pdf. Thanks, -Bryant
More gold goodies was also late this evening, but included this MOST astute commentary:
Most observers are bewildered by the open interest slump. My guess is that this is the reverberations of the settlement of some monster physical transaction.
Something VERY BIG is up ... to be dealt with in future
Unglaublich: JP Morgan versucht offenbar für sich oder (einen Gold De-Hedger) massiv Gold-Futures in Gold-Metall umzuwandeln.
Für alle Österreicher unter den Lesern - was mit deren "Volkseigentum" gemacht wurde:
Aus dem Midas vom 31. Mai:
Gold news out of Vienna;
Dear Bill!
I am a regular at the Café since last year and enjoyed the ride so far! We even drove from Vienna to Munich just to hear you and James Turk speak at the conference, that was fun!Anyway, I'm writing to inform you that the governor of the Austrian National Bank (OeNB) Dr. Liebscher stated in his address to the general assembly in 2005 that the OeNB has "started to use the gold reserves in a profitable way. 72% of the gold reserves are invested in time deposits."
In this year's address he says "roughly two thirds" which probably means that it probably hasn't changed (which would be in compliance to WAG2).
He doesn't clarify "time deposits" ("Termineinlagen") but the year- end numbers feature "gold and gold receivables" in one line, so this might mean anything from gold futures to gold loans.
That means that about 80t of Austria's gold exist in physical form.
Btw, the total of Austria's gold is 288 tons (down from 657 tons in 1988). The book value of these 288 tons roughly equals Austria's Euro contingent (Euro 4.5 billion).
Cheers,
Stefan from Vienna
Nur mehr 80 Tonnen Nationalbank-Gold real vorhanden? Holt Euch den Rest in den privaten Besitz!
Neu 2007-05-31:
Die grosse Schlacht am Goldmarkt:
Aus dem Midas vom 30. Mai:
The COMEX gold open interest rose an astonishing 9966 contracts yesterday to reach another all-time high of 425,688. The War of the Worlds has reached a new height.
This sort of buying is unprecedented, as is the selling. It would appear The Gold Cartel has been found out, and the SMART MONEY is taking them on. Certainly this is not your standard fund buying here.
Was bedeutet der "Open Interest": Es ist die Zahl der noch nicht erfüllte Kauf- bzw. Verkaufsorders. Gegenüber jedem Long (Kauf) steht ein Short (Verkauf) gegenüber. Was passiert real:
Es gibt eine Menge Käufer (Longs), die durch die Preisdrückungen nicht herausgehe (im Gegensatz zu früher). Also "verkauft" (Shorts) das Goldkartell ebensoviele Futures um den Preis nich hochschnellen zu lassen. Das Goldkartell macht also alles, um die Gold-Nachfrage zu neutralisieren.
Es gibt nur 2 Auswege aus der Situation:
a) Die Longs verkaufen ihre Kontrakte (war bei den Hedge-Fonds) immer so, dann kann das Kartell seine Shorts zurücknehmen
b) Die Longs bleiben drinnen und der Preis steigt, dann muss das Kartell irgendwann zu steigenden Preisen die Shorts covern.
Diesesmal scheint es so zu sein, dass das Goldkartell irgendwann nachgeben wird, denn es müsste für seine Shorts Unmengen von Metall liefern. Dann ist der Goldpreis nach oben frei. Bei Silber scheint das inzwischen der Fall zu sein, der Preis steigt.
Neu 2007-05-29:
Die deutsche Finanzpresse entdeckt Silber:
Handelsblatt: Fondsanleger kaufen Silber
Es ist Zeit geworden.
Neu 2007-05-18:
Aus dem Midas vom 17. Mai:
I think this is particularily relevent today’s price action,.. Notice that after a strong 4 year uptrend, Gold broke down out of the trend in May 05, as the chart above shows,.. Encouragingly though, instead of ‘tanking south’, as one might have expected, it traded sideways for a couple of months before beginning the ’10 month Ascent of Ascents’ up to and above $700,.. This adds some comfort to the ‘doomster chartists of today’ who are ‘manning the panic stations on the technical front at the minute’,..
2005 war auch eine ähnliche Entwicklung. Der Goldpreis wurde auch monatelang gedrückt, bis er im September 2005 ausgebrochen ist. Interessant auch der Kommentar über die "Doomster Chartists". Es hat keinen Sinn, in diesem manipulierten Markt technische Analyen anzustellen.
Weiter aus dem Midas:
If there is one quality that is necessary to succeed in this market, if there is something more rare than gold itself, it is patience. It has taken just two months of treading water to reduce most investors to nervous wrecks. All the while the gold market continues to create a high-level launching pad for further gains. I don’t know exactly when precious metals will take off into the wild blue yonder again, but I am sure that when it happens it will be from a base like the one that is forming right now. In the meantime India continues to import record amounts of bullion, disgorged from bankers and investors who will live to regret their preoccupation with short term results.
Das stimmt: was noch seltener ist als Gold: Geduld. Man muss langfristig denken. Trading ist in diesem Markt schwierung und sollte den absoluten Profis überlassen werden.
Neu 2007-05-07:
Jim Sinclair zum Goldpreis und zu den "Gold-Investoren":
1. I am convinced that the price of gold has chewed into significant opposition and appears close to overcoming it.
2. In all probability, I anticipate gold moving above $700 when I am in China.
3. In all probability the demand for gold that will breach the $700 level will come out of Hong Kong and Dubai.
4. Gold shares will participate.
5. Many long time gold advocates - having thrown in many towels - will not participate.
6. As in the 1970s and as Monty and I have pointed out to you there is new blood coming into the marketplace every day and they will be the ones to profit from gold’s upcoming move to and beyond $761.
Die, die "das Handtuch geworfen haben", werden beim bevorstehenden Anstieg nicht dabei sein. Dafür wird "neues Blut" dabei sein und die Nachfrage wird primär aus Hong Kong und Dubai kommen.
Sehen Sie auch diesen Artikel von Aubie Baltin: RIDING THE "GOLDEN" BULL
sowie meinen letzten Artikel dazu: Wie man den Goldbullen richtig reitet
Neu 2006-05-05:
Hintergründe aus Bill Bucklers Gold This Week vom 4. Mai (http://www.the-privateer.com/):
Consider what was happening as Gold soared from $US 500 to well over $US 700 in the six months between December 2005 and May 2006. The US real estate bubble reached its "apogee", despite the fact that the Fed was raising official US interest rates with clockwork regularity by 0.25 percent every time the FOMC met. The Treasury bumped up against its "debt limit" in late January and the "numbers" were frozen until the limit was raised - by $US 781 Billion to its present level of $US 8.965 TRILLION - on March 16, 2006. The President was plunging in the polls and for the first time, the majority of Americans deemed the war and occupation of Iraq as a "mistake" and were quickly coming around to favour a withdrawal from that nation.
But even with all this going on, a patina of US economic prosperity was still intact. The housing boom was still on and everyone still clung to the illusion that they were "rich", at least on paper. The Republicans still held both the White House and the Congress. The Iraqi's had even elected themselves a "government", allowing the Bush Administration to claim that they had restored "democracy" to that nation. In short, the perception that everything was still "under control" was still in place. Gold's run up from $500 to $700 plus in the first half of 2006 was largely fuelled by the traders who were jumping on every market bandwagon as soon as it appeared on their radars as offering a potentially superior return, no matter how long or short-lived that might be.
If we look at the year SINCE Gold hit those $US 720 plus highs in May 2006, the cardinal difference which is immediately apparent is the LOSS of perceived control by the "powers that be". Since the Fed stopped raising rates at the end of June last year (even though everybody else did NOT), their ability to control the financial system in general or the money supply in particular has come under ever growing doubt. The past year has also seen the END of the last great US investment boom, the real estate bubble. On top of that, the Republicans lost control of Congress in the November 2006 mid term elections. And over the past two months (during which Gold has only had one "down" week - and that was last week), the US Dollar has come under ever increasing pressure.
With this perceived loss of control, along with the perceived loss of legitimacy of the Bush Administration and their foreign (and domestic) adventures, has come an increasing sense of desperation by the US establishment, both political and financial. With that has come the increasing necessity to grimly retain control on anything where a retention of control is still possible.
As we have pointed many, many times, the source of the power of the US establishment is their control of the US currency and their ability to make the rest of the world accept it in return for REAL economic goods. The most dangerous adversary of the US Dollar is not any other global paper currency, it is REAL money, and that is Gold (and also Silver). As their power and control slips in more and more areas, their efforts to maintain it grow proportionally. And so far, they have been successful in controlling the precious metals. Neither Gold nor Silver has regained the highs they set this time last year.
We do not know how much longer this state of affairs can last. What we do know is that the longer it does last, the harsher the consequences (for the US establishment) when their control is finally lost, which it inevitably must be.
Hier ist es. Eine Menge hat sich besonders in den USA seit einem Jahr geändert. Die Bushies sind total desperat. Daher werden die Märkte so stark manipuliert. Deren wirkliche Macht ist der US-Dollar als Zahlungsmittel in der Welt, für den man reale Güter kaufen kann. Wenn diese Kontrolle verloren geht, werden die Konsequenzen desastriös sein.
Warum machen die Europäer und besonders die Franzosen da mit? Weil sie ähnliche Probleme haben.
Neu 2007-05-03:
Silber, die am meisten unterbewertete Asset-Klasse:
Ein exzellenter Artikel von Mark O'Byrne: Silver - Probably the Most Undervalued Asset Class
There are a total of 8.7 million millionaires around the world, representing a total wealth of a mind boggling $33.3 trillion. A trillion is an extremely large number and difficult for most to comprehend.
Conversely, the total value of all above ground stock of silver is a very small $4.2 billion.
Hmm, wenn nur die Millionäre dieser Welt jeweils 0.01% ihres Vermögens in Silber investieren, ist das verfügbare Silber weg.
Sind die so arm oder so unwissend? Die Situation ist hier noch viel explosiver als bei Gold. Wird schon noch kommen.
Neu 2007-04-25:
Ist Goldman Sachs 1000 Tonnen Gold Short?
Michael Kosares: Structural shift in gold, money markets
Hilft Hank Paulson seinen Ex-Kollegen bei Goldman, dass diese Short-Position (Metall, nicht Futures) nicht hochgeht?
Was ist mit Deutsche Bank, UBS, JP Morgan, etc., etc.? Sind die auch so stark short (haben geliehenes Gold verkauft).
Interessant im Artikel auch Gordon Browns Rufe nach IMF-Gold als Indikator für einen neuen Goldpreis-Anstieg.
Werden etwa die Goldverleiher unruhig?
Neu 2007-04-19:
Hier eine Performance-Statistik (USA) aus dem Midas vom 18. April:
Die US-Aktienkurse sind weit abgeschlagen (europäische Aktien waren besser). Gold und besonders Silber waren viel besser. Die Säule "Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds" gibt offenbar die Performance von Goldminen-Fonds an. Die meisten Goldminen-Aktien waren wesentlich besser.
Neu 2007-03-27:
John Embry: Zeit für einen ballistischen Anstieg:
http://sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/investors_digest_mar_30_2007.pdf
Er meint, dass der Goldpreis nicht mehr unter $600 sinken wird.
Neu 2007-03-10:
Wieder ein Super Artikel von Doug Casey:
IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT (AND I FEEL FINE)
"Crisis Investing" ist seine Spezialität. Er hat ein Buch darüber geschrieben und es hat ihn reich gemacht.
Also, es ist besser, ihm zuzuhören als irgendwelchen Theoretikern:
Put simply, the amount of gold available to investors and central banks is like the number of beachfront home sites at Malibu -- it’s not going to change much. As a result, when the rush for the lifeboats begins in earnest, the upward pressure on gold will be unimaginable. As will be the profits for anyone who acts now, ahead of the crowd.
Ja, wenn das Rennen auf die Rettungsboote Gold und Silber beginnt. Dann sollten Sie bereits drinnen sitzen. Diesesmal gibt es von weniger als beim Untergang der Titanic.
Neu 2007-02-22:
Technische Analyse - sinnvoll?
Chris Powell, GATA: You can know a few things, or you can have technical analysis
Kurz zusammengefasst: in manipulierten Märkten wie derzeit ist technische Analyse sinnlos.
Aber das wollen diese Analysten nicht sehen, da sie sonst ihren "Lebensunterhalt" verlieren würden.
Neu 2007-02-18:
Goldpreis-Faktoren nach Jim Willie:
Er ist nur einer der Autoren, die in nächster Zeit eine stetige Aufwärtsbewegung für Gold sehen.
Sehen Sie nur diesen Punkt:
A bank crisis worse than the 1989 Savings & Loan debacle is in progress, sure to see infection to the general banking system. The USFed and Dept of Treasury are laundering mortgage bonds illicitly, without 98.69% probability.
Die Bankenkrise ist wirklich unterwegs. Offenbar monetisiert Helicopter Ben die Fannie Mae MBS-Bonds (geheim), sonst hätten sie zusammen mit dem Subprime-BMS-Bonds schon runtergehen müssen. Wie lange dauert es noch, bis man dahinterkommt?