Gold & Silber - Minen(-Aktien) - 2008

Informationen über Minen und Investments in deren Aktien. AMEX GOLD BUGS INDEX

Neu 2008-12-31:

Minenaktien steigen wieder:

FAZ: Goldminenaktien glänzen plötzlich wieder

Doch mit Hilfe des zuletzt erholten Goldpreises ist der Index in den vergangenen Wochen wieder um 86 Prozent nach oben geschnellt. Das unterstreicht, wie volatil und mit was für einen großen Hebel die Kurse der Goldminenaktien auf Veränderungen beim Goldpreis reagieren. Deshalb fällt auch für 2009 eine Prognose leicht: Sollte es dem Goldpreis gelingen, sich wieder dem Rekordhoch bei gut 1.000 Dollar je Feinunze anzunähern, dann sieht es auch gut aus für die Aktien der Goldminen. Sollte der Goldpreis dagegen zurückfallen, wäre dies auch schlecht für die Produzenten.

Üblicherweise steigen zuerst die Goldminen, bevor der physische Goldpreis steigt - gute Zeichen. Sind alle an Bord?

Neu 2008-12-29:

Gold/Silberminen-Aktien springen hoch:

HUI und XAU Indices sind heute um ca. 3% gestiegen, meine eigenen Aktien um durchschnittlich 10%.

Sehr gutes Zeichen. Gold ist übrigens in Euro fast auf Höchststand.

Neu 2008-12-25:

Aus dem Midas vom 22.12. für alle, deren Minenaktien zu "blutigen Klumpen" geschlagen wurden:

One of my "unwritten rules" for sifting through investment ideas is that I NEVER pay any credence to an idea proffered by anyone a) with less time on the field – i.e. fewer years in the trading trenches than I, and b) who is younger than I am.

With all of the newsletters and market commentaries out there, that leaves basically Richard Russell and the following veteran writer for Barron’s, the venerable cynic (on Wall Street "wisdom"), Alan Abelson, whose "Up and Down Wall Street" column has been around for as long as I have been reading Barron’s, which goes back to the late Seventies.

With that as an intro, here is what Alan says in his Weekend column:

"Roughly a month ago, we suggested that gold, which was around $742 an ounce, seemed like a pretty good bet and, while we were at it, we allowed that oil, then $57 a barrel, might be interesting as well in "the not-too-distant future" (a cowardly formulation, we have to admit, designed to get us off the hook). Since then, oil has gotten worse and we've gotten a bit braver.

Our hunch is that once year-end selling runs its course, we can boldly suggest that "the not-too-distant future" translates into "early in the new year," and energy stocks, particularly the exploration and production contingent that has been beaten to a bloody pulp, are due for a decent bounce. And, oh yes -- with Washington and its counterparts in Europe and Asia in a mad race to reflate -- we still think gold is a no-brainer.

I also believe that Alan’s reference to a rebound in oil "particularly the exploration and production contingent that has been beaten to a bloody pulp" is bang on but never more valid in the "bloody pulp" as it would apply to the TSX Venture Exchange, where the vast majority of new discoveries of gold, base metals, diamonds, uranium and potash have all been made over the years.

My grey-bearded colleagues who have been through more than a couple of TSXV bear markets all agree that the 2008 mauling of the junior mining sector has created the most incredible opportunity since the ’73-’74 bear market ended, which gave rise to a meteoric rise in this space until early 1980. My partners and I believe that the majority of the "penny dreadfuls" (junior exploration companies) have all now been re-priced to "shell valuation levels" – viable companies with great projects and even nominal working capital have been priced to levels that a year ago would be afforded to shells with zero property, a couple of hundred grand in the bank and a TSXV listing.

That is what happens when you let the 30-something kids loose with "other people’s money" running a fund (or two, or three) that have zero understanding of the history of the junior mining sector (TSXV). I asked one of ‘em a few days ago if he knew how Barrick Gold (ABX.T/NY) got its start and he said he thought it was "from the merger of a bunch of consolidating juniors back in the 80’s" at which I summarily "dissed" him and told him that it was around this time of year in 2003 that a little Vancouver Stock Exchange-listed company called American Barrick Resources Ltd. stuck a drill into a punky little heap-leach zone in Nevada and after going to depth as a "lark" to fill up the work hours before the Christmas Break, they wound up finding the enormous GoldStrike Deposit and the rest is history. These are the "kids" that have blown out ECU down to below a buck because they have no clue what occurred in thew 1975-1980 period where the public moved en-masse from the portside (long paper) to the starboard side (long gold/silver and PM shares) resulting in immense wealth creation for but a miniscule portion of the investing public.

We are now in the same "sweet spot" as we were in the mid-Seventies. And it feels good.

Neu 2008-11-13:

[9:30] Aus dem Midas vom 12.11. - Vergleich mit 1930:

The gold/silver shares continue to stink up the place. Word keeps coming my way of one gold/silver company after another being in the deepest of financial trouble.

If it’s any consolation, a colleague of mine told me today that Homestake Mining was crushed in the early days of The Great Depression before it became a high flyer.

While those of us who are invested in the shares are getting our butts kicked, there are super days ahead for us of epic proportions. I will be very surprised, and wrong, if that is the case for the general market ... nothing remotely close to it.

Auch damals sind die Minenaktien anfangs zerdrückt worden, anschliessend wurden sie die High Flyers.

Neu 2008-11-06:

[11:00] Venezuela: das "politische Affenrisiko" schlägt zu:

SMH: Venezuela nationalises largest gold mine

Venezuela announced plans on Wednesday to take over the nation's largest gold mine, operated by Canada's Crystallex International Corp, as President Hugo Chavez gradually brings mining operations under state control.

Der Affe Chavez braucht Geld, also stiehlt er.

[11:00] Aus dem Midas vom 5.11. zu Macmin:

Sorry to report that Macmin Silver Mining (mmn) Australia's only pure silver producer & owner of a large tract of New Guinea gold mining, has had to appeal for Administration - which they are now under and their share trading suspended (including my own 30,000 holding).

The company has over $3,000,000 cash in the bank but delay with supplies and slower laeaching of silver than expected, together with crashes in the silver price just as they applied to the public and shareholders for capital, on both occassions nearly a year apart meant a huge shortfall in capital needed. Hopefully, a resurgence in the silver price will see them trading again. (The CEO and his wife put in $43,000....)

Der Silberpreis war wohl zu lange so niedrig.

Siehe auch hier: Minenbetreiber geraten unter Druck

Neu 2008-09-19:

Gold/Silberminen-Aktien sind günstig:

FAZ: Experten halten Goldaktien für so günstig wie selten

Goldminenaktien sind im relativen Vergleich zum Goldpreis günstig bewertet

Besonders günstig bewertet seien die kleineren Branchenvertreter. Laut John Embry, der als verantwortlicher Investmentstratege bei Sprott Asset Management über 30 Jahre Erfahrung in der Analyse des Goldsektors verfügt, hat er noch nie eine so hohe Diskrepanz in der Bewertung der Juniorunternehmen im Vergleich zu den großen Konzernen erlebt wie jetzt. Embry zufolge sind zahlreiche interessante Juniors für ein Butterbrot zu haben.

Wenn der Goldpreis hochschiesst und es kein Metall mehr zu kaufen gibt, bleiben nur diese Minenaktien. Daher bin ich drinnen - mein Hebel - ohne Kredit.

Vorsicht: Experten-Investment!

Neu 2008-07-17:

Die Goldminen brauchen dringend einen höheren Goldpreis:

Kopp: Gedanken zur aktuell tragischen Situation der Goldgräber

Peter Munk, Vorsitzender des weltweit größten Goldproduzenten »Barrick Gold«, soll Anfang Mai auf einem Aktionärstreffen gesagt haben, dass in den vergangenen Jahren effektiv keine neuen Goldvorkommen mehr gefunden wurden (Orginal: »… virtually no new discoveries«), und dies obwohl die Budgets der Minenbetreiber für die Exploration auf einem Rekordwert lägen

Ganz einfach: die Produktionskosten steigen durch die Goldpreisdrückung schneller als der Produktpreis. Gute Zeit zum Einsteigen.

Neu 2008-07-14:

Es ist Zeit, in die Junior-Minen einzusteigen:

Goldseek: Time is running out to buy junior exploration stocks

The big gold and silver producers are preparing to unleash a round of bidding for junior exploration companies that will bid up the value of the whole sector, and stocks that are good, bad and indifferent will jump in value. You have been warned. Now is the time to buy. It is so obvious with gold and silver prices on the march…

The smaller junior exploration stocks have been hit hardest, and languish at a record low in comparison to the gold price. Indeed, prices have been falling for two years. In terms of asset values the juniors are now outstandingly good value. In 1974 and the late 70s this stock category delivered the highest advances, soaring 20, 50 and even over 100 times in price.

Will history repeat itself? The general of the gold bugs, Jim Sinclair, the multi-millionaire trader whose website is required reading for serious precious metal investors, certainly believes it will be. He recalls how even juniors with poor claims saw their shares rocket in the 70s.

Diese Aktien wurden jetzt lange genug gedrückt, so dass sie sehr billig sind. Meine eigenen Aktien steigen schon einige Tage (Junior und Producers).

Sorry, keine Aktientips. Investment in Gold/Silberminen-Aktien ist harte Arbeit.

Neu 2008-03-10:

Die Goldsucher am Yukon:

Presse: Kanada: Goldschürfen als Lebensstil

Mit dem hohen Goldpreis steigt auch in Kanada das Interesse an der traditionellen Suche nach dem kostbaren Metall. Alte Kleinst-Familienbetriebe leben plötzlich wieder auf.

Noch suchen nur die Abenteurer. Aber wenn der Goldpreis einmal richtig anzieht und um $100 am Tag steigt, werden sich ganze Kolonnen in diese Gebiete ergiessen.

- sie haben nicht vorgesorgt und bekommen kein Gold mehr
- Aktien von Goldminen sind zu teuer geworden

Aber selbst dann ist es empfehlenswert, nicht selbst nach Gold zu suchen, sondern diese Leute als Händler zu versorgen. Oder ihnen in eigenen Kneipen das Gold für Alkohol und Prostituierte wieder abzunehmen.

Neu 2008-02-26:

Metall ist sicherer als Minenaktien:


I claim that gold bullion is safer than gold stocks. However, I do not suggest that investors avoid gold stocks. Neither do I suggest that they are the worse choice. The case for stocks is strong and undeniable. Their higher risk profile offers a higher expected return. However, no one should expect that the higher expected return should materialize in higher actual return, just like the higher expected return on subprime mortgages did not actually materialize in higher returns when compared to prime mortgages.

During the 1970s, many gold stocks indeed outperformed the metal 5-10 times or more. With gold stocks, the solution undoubtedly is better stock picking. My investment advice is as follows:

ADVICE 1. Investors should keep a bulk of their portfolio in bullion.

ADVICE 2. Investors should carefully pick their stock pickers.

Neu 2008-01-26:

Goldförder-Stop in Südafrika:

Presse: "Nationaler Notstand": Südafrika stellt Goldabbau ein

AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields und Harmony Gold Mining teilten mit, sie seien von dem südafrikanischen Stromkonzern Eskom informiert worden, dass das staatliche Unternehmen die Versorgung nicht garantieren könne. "Wir haben Strom nur zur Notversorgung laufen", zitiert die südafrikanische Zeitung "Business Day" AngloGold-Sprecher Steve Lenahan. Unklar ist demnach auch, wann die Produktion wieder aufgenommen werden kann.

Die Frage nach der Ursache der Stromknappheit: sind es die vielen auf Kredit gekauften Klimaanlagen (dort ist jetzt Sommer und sie haben eine Kreditbubble) oder ist es der allgemeine Zerfall der Infrastruktur?

Meiner Meinung nach wird Südafrika den selben Weg gehen wie Zimbabwe. Jedes Investment in diesem Land ist hoch riskant.

Neu 2008-01-17:

[20:00] Leser-Antwort-DE dazu:

zu Ihrer Frage bezüglich Auslieferung von Aktien-Zertifikaten müssen Sie nach "stock certificates"
bei Ihrem Online-Broker oder Ihrem Depot-Verwalter schauen.

Bei meinem On-Line Broker TD AMERITRADE in den U.S.A., wo ich meine Minen-Aktien halte, liegt die Gebühr dafür bei $50.

Ich hatte mir vor 5 Jahren einmal meine Mitarbeiter-Aktien von einem Depot-Konto einer kanadischen Bank mit Hilfe als Stock Certificates ausstellen lassen. Um die Aktien dann meinem Broker Account gutzuschreiben. Das war mehr oder minder problemlos.

Allerdings wenn man das "stock certificate" verliert, dann sind auch die Aktien futsch.

"Verlieren" ist nicht die grosse Gefahr. Betrug und Blockierung in der Broker-Insolvenz ist es. In den USA sollte man überhaupt nichts halten (Devisenkontrollen).

Neu 2008-01-12:

Warum die Minenaktien noch nicht richtig angezogen haben:

Aus dem Midas vom 11. Jan:

MANY Café members continue to query why so many gold/silver stocks act so poorly. It will change. A helpful way to look at the situation from Andy…

I was moved by Chuck Cohen’s piece tonight, particularly about the current period of surreal fantasy preceding a sea change in perception. What I see in the gold sector today (aside from a few majors) is an incredible lack of confidence/belief/understanding by the masses AND Wall Street, despite the fact that the fundamentals are screaming and even mainstream media outlets such as CNBC and Barron’s are starting to catch on. Heck, today we even had the venerable (facetious) Fed Chairman talking about massive rate cuts AND rising inflation in the same sentence, the most bullish possible scenario for gold!

Anyhow, as you know I was an oilfield services analyst from 1996-2005, and despite tremendous growth in the sector during that period, it was not until mid-2005 that the market finally "got it" that oil prices were no longer in danger of crashing. Oil service stocks were repeatedly pummeled during 1996-2005 anytime oil prices dropped slightly, the economy weakened, or OPEC blinked, among other things. But in mid-2005, that world changed forever, and the stocks took it from there.

Schlumberger (SLB), for instance, by far the bellwether oilfield service stock, went from roughly $20 to $40 from 1996-2005, a very rocky road that involved several steep corrections despite the fact that oil prices and profits increased dramatically during that period. However, once the market "got it" in mid-2005 that oil prices were high to stay, the stock rocketed up to $115 in just 2 ½ years. That rocky road was normal for a highly cyclical, volatile commodity such as oil, but around 2005 multiples expanded DRAMATICALLY once investors realized that high prices were here to stay.

This will happen shortly in the PM sector when investors realize that high gold and silver prices are here to stay, and the "multiple expansion" that will occur in the miners (particularly the junior sector), might be, as Chuck put it, the most spectacular in the history of markets. Less than a year ago, investors were paying $3-$4/oz for silver resources, and were quite liberal in their interpretations of resources, compared to today’s $1-$3/oz tops, with MUCH more conservative interpretations of resources. A year from now we could be $5+ per ounce, and when the fever breaks over the sector I sense that $10-$20+/oz will be more the norm than the exception.

Just one more comment on how clueless the investing world is these days, and just how detached Wall Street is from reality. When I left the oil industry in 2005, I initially aimed to become a sell-side analyst in the PM sector. I pitched several boutique firms around the country, including Stifel Nicolaus in Denver, Colorado, the mining capital of the U.S. and as of this past May my permanent home. Since that interview in mid-2005, the firm has expanded rapidly, and now employs a whopping 63 analysts. Yet, in the city that would most benefit from the greatest bull market of all time, not a single analyst covers PM’s yet. Sorry, one guy covers coal companies, utilities, and Freeport McMoran (for copper, not gold, I’m sure), but that’s about it.

Even in the center of the U.S. gold industry, the biggest broker in the city has no interest in gold. But boy do they cover a lot of BANKS – LOL!

Our time is coming, and it’s coming soon.

Der Analystenapparat braucht noch einige Zeit, um sich umzustellen, das war bis 2005 beim Öl genauso. Im Moment analysieren sie noch die Banken.

Aber die Zeit für die Minenaktien kommt - spätestens, wenn der Goldpreis bei $1000 ist. Und die Junior-Minen werden besonders profitieren.

PS: ich selbst habe nach dem Absturz von Novagold gleich nachgekauft - wieder um 20% gestiegen.

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